After the Yankees recent and reasonable contracts handed out to CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, the media and fans have exploded with disgust. The big argument is that the Yankees are stupidly spending this money on pitchers and overpaying. This is false and I presume people do not know that, since they do not know how to value free agents.
Currently, there is a stat that does just that- WAR. WAR literally stands for Wins Above Replacement. A Replacement player is your typical AAA/AAAA player. A team of replacement players would easily set the record for most losses in a season. As Tangotiger wrote, WAR is, "he talent level for which you would pay the minimum salary on the open market, or for which you can obtain at minimal cost in a trade."
For positional players, the replacement level is set at -2.25 per 162 games, below the league average. However, since the AL is a tougher league than the NL, the AL replacement level is -2.5 and the NL replacement level is -2.
Along with league adjustments, there are positional adjustments. This is done to make sure an average defender at one position, lets say LF, is not equal to an average defensive SS. The adjustments are as follows:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH
Starting pitchers and relievers have different baselines, since pitchers are expected to perform better out of the pen. The replacement level for starters is .380 win% and .470 win% for relievers. Again, there is a league adjustment; AL starters and relievers are .370% and .460% while NL starters and relievers are .390% and .480%. Closers have a replacement level of .570%. If a closer gets any wins above that level, it is multiplied by his Leverage Index.
The formula for calculating WAR for positional players takes into account league, position, PA, wOBA, and defense. The formula for starters and relievers includes ERA and IP. Right now, 1 WAR = $4.84 million. So a player with a 2 WAR on today's open market is worth about $10 million per year. The free agent value, this year $4.84 million, increases about 10% each season. Last year it was $4.4 million.
So lets test this out on some free agents or former free agents. First, we'll do Mark Teixeira. Marcel projects Teixeira to have a .386 wOBA. Subtract that from a projected league average- I am using .340. Use that answer (.46) and divide by 1.15. Times that answer by projected PA (in this case, 600). Now divide that by 10.5. Now add in 2.5 for the league adjustment, but subtract 1 for the positional adjustment. Adding in .84 for defense (Runs defensive metric/10.5) and Mark Teixeira's WAR is about 4.5. Multiply that by the free agent value of 4.84 and you will see Mark is worth about $22 million per year. An 8/176 deal is around fair price for him. (The .338 is whatever the league average wOBA is, which is EXACTLY equal to whatever the league average OBP is; 1.15 is the relationship between wOBA and runs; 700 is the number of PA per 162 games; 10.5 is the relationship between runs and wins- Tangotiger)
Now, lets do CC Sabathia. After plugging in projections on my WAR calculator (if you want one, just ask), Sabathia has about a 5.1 WAR. So he is worth about $25-$26 million on the open market and is worth an additional amount of money to the Yankees. They are paying him $23 million per year.
Finally, lets do AJ Burnett. After accounting for a risk of injury and not throwing 200 innings annually, his WAR is around 3.5. That makes him worth $16.94 per year. The Yankees are paying him fair value. If Burnett stays healthy and can pitch effectively for 200+ innings, the Yankees could even have a bargain on their hands. Of course, this and the CC contract can blow up on their faces because of injury.
If anyone wants an exact formula for batters, just ask me. And there- now you can tell if a team is spending too much on a player or not. You are welcome.
12/16/08
Marlins president bashes Yankees signing of CC Sabathia
While on a radio show, the president of the Marlins called in to complain that the actions taken by the Yankees in signing Sabathia are irresponsible and sets a bad precedent for future contracts.
1. Well, the Yankees were not irresponsible. CC Sabathia is worth about $25-$26 mil per year. The Yankees are paying him $23 mil per year. It should also not set a bad precedent for future contracts, unless teams plan on giving this much money to average players, not top players in all of baseball
2. He draws 500 people a night if he is lucky. Maybe if he invested money in his team, the attendance figures would rise, giving him a return on his payroll investment. But hey, he should be rejoicing because of the increased amount of revenue sharing he will receive because of the signing.
However, I see his point on why the Yanks are "irresponsible". Since the Yanks get a revenue sharing break from their new stadium, the Marlins president won't be able to buy his luxury yacht and summer house this season.
1. Well, the Yankees were not irresponsible. CC Sabathia is worth about $25-$26 mil per year. The Yankees are paying him $23 mil per year. It should also not set a bad precedent for future contracts, unless teams plan on giving this much money to average players, not top players in all of baseball
2. He draws 500 people a night if he is lucky. Maybe if he invested money in his team, the attendance figures would rise, giving him a return on his payroll investment. But hey, he should be rejoicing because of the increased amount of revenue sharing he will receive because of the signing.
However, I see his point on why the Yanks are "irresponsible". Since the Yanks get a revenue sharing break from their new stadium, the Marlins president won't be able to buy his luxury yacht and summer house this season.
Olney: Why are teams bidding for a free agent?
Bustner Olney writes why Baltimore and Washington should not be bidding for Mark Teixeira.
Read: Stop bidding so Boston can sign him.
Read: Stop bidding so Boston can sign him.
12/3/08
Will Peter Gammons Retire?
I am not even going to break down this quote. It's too awful to do so.
Gammons on the new Pedroia contract...
Quote:
That it got done this quickly shows how much Pedroia loves playing in Boston, and that he prefers playing to dickering over arbitration and free-agent dollars. His favorite phrase is "it's all about winning."
And he means it.
Just, wow.
Gammons on the new Pedroia contract...
Quote:
That it got done this quickly shows how much Pedroia loves playing in Boston, and that he prefers playing to dickering over arbitration and free-agent dollars. His favorite phrase is "it's all about winning."
And he means it.
Just, wow.
I like white Rice...
... but not black Rice.
Evans was a life long Red Sox right fielder, whose career just spanned three decades. His career from 1972-1991. Jim Rice played from 1974-1989, so Evans played during the same exact era as Rice, on the same team, on the same patch of outfield grass. Rice still has a shot to make the HOF in his fifteenth try. Evans was knocked off the voting in three seasons, never getting higher than 10.4% of the vote in any of those three years.
So my question is, if Evans barely made a dent in the voting for three years, why was Rice not kicked off the ballot in even shorter time? So lets look at the numbers (KEEP IN MIND I AM NOT ADVOCATING OR DENYING THAT EVANS SHOULD BE A HOF'er):
JR: 9058 PA- .298/.352/.502/.854/128+ with a .375 wOBA, .293 EqA, 1367 EqR, 80.2 WARP3
DE: 10569 PA- .272/.370/.470/.840/127+ with a .374 wOBA, .296 EqA, 1606 EqR, 116.5 WARP3
Hmmm, who was better? Near identical OPS+ and wOBA. But Evans has a better EqA even though he played longer past his prime and even though the disparity in PA is big, I doubt in the twilight of Rice's career, he would muster enough EqR and WARP3 to pass Evans. The WARP3 is really striking. 80.2 is bad for a HOF hitter. Just bad. Pitiful. Disgusting. In almost as many PA, Bernie Williams has a much higher WARP3.
And the rest is taken from a member of SOSH:
Always regarded as a good defensive outfielder, Evans topped 10 assists from right field five times in his career. Additionally, for his career he scored 277 runs above replacement as a right fielder and 85 runs above average against other right fielders. In stark contrast, while Rice was able to accumulate a great deal of assists over his career (likely aided by both his throwing arm and playing LF at Fenway), Rice was not able to score close to an average RAA over the course of his career (-51)....While I do not think Rice should be a member of the Hall of Fame (though he deserves much consideration), I do believe his teammate does. Evans was a much better fielder, almost an equal as a hitter and lasted much longer. While Jim Rice had a season that trumps any season of Evans (Rice’s 78 ranks with the best of seasons), Evans was a tremendous RF season after season, over three decades. He’s Boston’s Billy Williams.
He sums it up nicely. Rice is not a HOF'er and if any Red Sox alumnus deserves to be in the HOF, it is Dwight Evans and not Rice. End o' story.
And one thing real fast on Tim Raines and why he is a ROCK that deserves to be in the HOF. In the National League in the 1980s, the league slugging percentage once topped .400 (1987, .404) and often was .360-.370. As a result, the "break-even" point for stolen bases was a lot lower than the 75-80% it is today (somewhere around 62-65%, I think). Because so few players had extra base power, the ability to get yourself into scoring position without giving away an out was incredibly valuable. Stealing 60+ bases at an 86% clip (which was Raines success rate from 1981-1990, when he averaged 62.7 steals/year) provided a ton of value. That is just another point to prove Raines is a HOF player.
Evans was a life long Red Sox right fielder, whose career just spanned three decades. His career from 1972-1991. Jim Rice played from 1974-1989, so Evans played during the same exact era as Rice, on the same team, on the same patch of outfield grass. Rice still has a shot to make the HOF in his fifteenth try. Evans was knocked off the voting in three seasons, never getting higher than 10.4% of the vote in any of those three years.
So my question is, if Evans barely made a dent in the voting for three years, why was Rice not kicked off the ballot in even shorter time? So lets look at the numbers (KEEP IN MIND I AM NOT ADVOCATING OR DENYING THAT EVANS SHOULD BE A HOF'er):
JR: 9058 PA- .298/.352/.502/.854/128+ with a .375 wOBA, .293 EqA, 1367 EqR, 80.2 WARP3
DE: 10569 PA- .272/.370/.470/.840/127+ with a .374 wOBA, .296 EqA, 1606 EqR, 116.5 WARP3
Hmmm, who was better? Near identical OPS+ and wOBA. But Evans has a better EqA even though he played longer past his prime and even though the disparity in PA is big, I doubt in the twilight of Rice's career, he would muster enough EqR and WARP3 to pass Evans. The WARP3 is really striking. 80.2 is bad for a HOF hitter. Just bad. Pitiful. Disgusting. In almost as many PA, Bernie Williams has a much higher WARP3.
And the rest is taken from a member of SOSH:
Always regarded as a good defensive outfielder, Evans topped 10 assists from right field five times in his career. Additionally, for his career he scored 277 runs above replacement as a right fielder and 85 runs above average against other right fielders. In stark contrast, while Rice was able to accumulate a great deal of assists over his career (likely aided by both his throwing arm and playing LF at Fenway), Rice was not able to score close to an average RAA over the course of his career (-51)....While I do not think Rice should be a member of the Hall of Fame (though he deserves much consideration), I do believe his teammate does. Evans was a much better fielder, almost an equal as a hitter and lasted much longer. While Jim Rice had a season that trumps any season of Evans (Rice’s 78 ranks with the best of seasons), Evans was a tremendous RF season after season, over three decades. He’s Boston’s Billy Williams.
He sums it up nicely. Rice is not a HOF'er and if any Red Sox alumnus deserves to be in the HOF, it is Dwight Evans and not Rice. End o' story.
And one thing real fast on Tim Raines and why he is a ROCK that deserves to be in the HOF. In the National League in the 1980s, the league slugging percentage once topped .400 (1987, .404) and often was .360-.370. As a result, the "break-even" point for stolen bases was a lot lower than the 75-80% it is today (somewhere around 62-65%, I think). Because so few players had extra base power, the ability to get yourself into scoring position without giving away an out was incredibly valuable. Stealing 60+ bases at an 86% clip (which was Raines success rate from 1981-1990, when he averaged 62.7 steals/year) provided a ton of value. That is just another point to prove Raines is a HOF player.
11/24/08
Solving baseball's problems
If there is one thing most baseball fans can agree on, it’s their passionate hate for the New York Yankees. Why? Well, as one Phillies fan puts it, “they buy their way into championships”.
Large market teams such as the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Angels have the financial power to sign expensive free agents, over small market teams such as the Milwaukee Brewers. In fact, the Brewers contract offer of four years and $100 million to this year’s top free agent, CC Sabathia, was dwarfed by the Yankees offer of six years and $140 million.
The financial authority that large market teams have over small market teams is why baseball fans want a salary cap. A salary cap is simply a limit on how much a team can spend on their roster payroll. By implementing a cap, fans feel that a competitive balance will be restored to baseball since large markets teams will no longer be able to outspend small market teams on pricy free agents.
However, success is not directly tied to payroll. In 2008, of the teams with the ten highest payrolls, only five made the playoffs. In fact, the league’s three highest payroll teams did not even make even make the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays, the American League champions and World Series participant, had the second lowest payroll at just over $43 million. Competitive balance in baseball is fine and the belief that teams with money have a competitive advantage is a fallacy.
With a cap, small market teams would still not spend. Just because large market teams will be restricted, there will still be no incentive for the owners of small market teams to spend. Meanwhile, a cap would unfairly punish successful and organized franchises. Also, while large market teams can spend more money on their payroll, to be successful, they still need to spend it wisely. Spending money on just anybody is not smart business and can hurt teams. Before the 2007 season, the San Francisco Giants signed pitcher Barry Zito to a seven year and $126 million dollar contract, the largest ever for a pitcher at the time. Since then, Zito has been one of the worst starters in baseball and his contract has hurt the Giants.
Major League Baseball’s solution to the “problem” was revenue sharing. Under the current contract, all teams must pay out 31% of their local revenue and it is split evenly among all thirty teams. Also, MLB’s Central Fund is divided up among teams according to their revenue. In affect, revenue sharing is basically the transition of money from large market teams to small market teams.
The current revenue sharing system has its own problems. Again, owners of small market teams have no incentive to re-invest the money they receive from large market teams on their payroll. This is because if the team spends the money they receive to build a winning team, they will receive less money from revenue sharing. In 2006, the Rays collected more than $30 million in revenue sharing. However, their payroll was just $35 million. In most cases, the money of large market teams goes straight to the pockets of small market owners, which defeats the purpose of the system.
The best solution to revenue sharing comes from Michael Lewis, an assistant marketing professor at Olin Business School in Washington University. His solution takes into account team payrolls, winning percentage, attendance, and size of the local population. Depending on attendance, the amount of money a team receives from revenue sharing can go up or down. If a team’s attendance is around 70%, their revenue sharing will go up. If their attendance is below 50%, they won’t receive as much money.
This improved revenue sharing is the best way for baseball to allow small market teams to keep up with the financial strength of large market teams. If revenue sharing is tied into attendance, it will give franchises a reason to build a successful team, so more fans show up to games. If more fans show up, teams gate receipts, fan loyalty, and revenue sharing will go up. By forcing teams to construct winning teams, it will increase the competitiveness and health of the league.
Michael Lewis’s solution is a win-win. Teams get better, attendance goes up, and owners make more money. What’s not to like?
Large market teams such as the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Angels have the financial power to sign expensive free agents, over small market teams such as the Milwaukee Brewers. In fact, the Brewers contract offer of four years and $100 million to this year’s top free agent, CC Sabathia, was dwarfed by the Yankees offer of six years and $140 million.
The financial authority that large market teams have over small market teams is why baseball fans want a salary cap. A salary cap is simply a limit on how much a team can spend on their roster payroll. By implementing a cap, fans feel that a competitive balance will be restored to baseball since large markets teams will no longer be able to outspend small market teams on pricy free agents.
However, success is not directly tied to payroll. In 2008, of the teams with the ten highest payrolls, only five made the playoffs. In fact, the league’s three highest payroll teams did not even make even make the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays, the American League champions and World Series participant, had the second lowest payroll at just over $43 million. Competitive balance in baseball is fine and the belief that teams with money have a competitive advantage is a fallacy.
With a cap, small market teams would still not spend. Just because large market teams will be restricted, there will still be no incentive for the owners of small market teams to spend. Meanwhile, a cap would unfairly punish successful and organized franchises. Also, while large market teams can spend more money on their payroll, to be successful, they still need to spend it wisely. Spending money on just anybody is not smart business and can hurt teams. Before the 2007 season, the San Francisco Giants signed pitcher Barry Zito to a seven year and $126 million dollar contract, the largest ever for a pitcher at the time. Since then, Zito has been one of the worst starters in baseball and his contract has hurt the Giants.
Major League Baseball’s solution to the “problem” was revenue sharing. Under the current contract, all teams must pay out 31% of their local revenue and it is split evenly among all thirty teams. Also, MLB’s Central Fund is divided up among teams according to their revenue. In affect, revenue sharing is basically the transition of money from large market teams to small market teams.
The current revenue sharing system has its own problems. Again, owners of small market teams have no incentive to re-invest the money they receive from large market teams on their payroll. This is because if the team spends the money they receive to build a winning team, they will receive less money from revenue sharing. In 2006, the Rays collected more than $30 million in revenue sharing. However, their payroll was just $35 million. In most cases, the money of large market teams goes straight to the pockets of small market owners, which defeats the purpose of the system.
The best solution to revenue sharing comes from Michael Lewis, an assistant marketing professor at Olin Business School in Washington University. His solution takes into account team payrolls, winning percentage, attendance, and size of the local population. Depending on attendance, the amount of money a team receives from revenue sharing can go up or down. If a team’s attendance is around 70%, their revenue sharing will go up. If their attendance is below 50%, they won’t receive as much money.
This improved revenue sharing is the best way for baseball to allow small market teams to keep up with the financial strength of large market teams. If revenue sharing is tied into attendance, it will give franchises a reason to build a successful team, so more fans show up to games. If more fans show up, teams gate receipts, fan loyalty, and revenue sharing will go up. By forcing teams to construct winning teams, it will increase the competitiveness and health of the league.
Michael Lewis’s solution is a win-win. Teams get better, attendance goes up, and owners make more money. What’s not to like?
11/21/08
My farewell to Mike Mussina
Dear Mr. Mussina,
Your recent retirement brings an end to a brilliant eighteen year career. In those eighteen years, you made 536 starts, totaling 3562.2 innings. You've notched a 3.68 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.11 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, and 3.58 K/BB. Moreover, when comparing your stats to the league average and finding the difference, for your career you are:
-Second in Baserunners/9
-Tenth in ERA
-Third in K/BB
- Fourth in BB/9
Going further, you ranked in the top 10 in the AL in:
-Strikeouts ten times
-ERA ten times
-RSAA seven times (Runs Saved Against Average)
-Hits/9 nine times
-WHIP eleven times
-K/9 ten times
-BB/9 fourteen times
-K/BB fourteen times
So, Mr. Mussina, your resume is not lacking. You spent your entire career in the AL East, a time when the Jays won two World Series, Yankees won four World Series, Red Sox won two World Series, and the Rays appeared in one world series. Yet you still accumulated these stats.
But I am not writing to tell you that. I am writing to thank you. To thank you for all your shining moments in pinstripes and all the joy you brought to Oriole fans, Yankee fans, and baseball fans. For your entire career you were Mr. Almost. Almost won a World Series. Almost won Cy Young. Almost threw a perfect. Almost won 20 games- until 2008. It was a magical season, in which you were one of the few Yankee bright spots and you made the season more enjoyable, even when we were eliminated. In May after a putrid start against Baltimore, where you did not even survive the first, we thought you were done. It was time to give up. But you battled back. You proved us wrong. On a damp, September Sunday in Boston, you had us watching, even though we were eliminated from the playoffs. We watched because we wanted to see you finally achieve something. Not fall short. And you did it- you finally won that 20th game for the first time.
We love you for your personality. Your post game interviews were a must for any Yankee fan. Your candid dislike of Carl Pavano was great. And in 2006 when you ordered Joe Torre to sit back down on the bench so you could stay in the game, our love grew even deeper for you.
We love you for all your great performances. Your start in game 3 of the 2001 ALDS kept us alive in that series. Seven innings, four hits, one walk, and no runs. Your near perfect game made for an awesome Sunday night duel with David Cone. Your perfect tough lasted twenty six outs and two strikes.
Most of all, we revere you for your epic performance in game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. In the top of the fourth, you made your first career relief appearance. The score was 4-0 Boston with men on first and third and no outs. You struck out Jason Varitek and then got Damon to ground into an inning ending DP. You then threw two more scoreless innings, saving the game and the series for us.
We will miss you, Mr. Mussina and we wish you the best in the future.
Sincerely,
A big fan
P.S. One last time: MOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEE!!!
Your recent retirement brings an end to a brilliant eighteen year career. In those eighteen years, you made 536 starts, totaling 3562.2 innings. You've notched a 3.68 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.11 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, and 3.58 K/BB. Moreover, when comparing your stats to the league average and finding the difference, for your career you are:
-Second in Baserunners/9
-Tenth in ERA
-Third in K/BB
- Fourth in BB/9
Going further, you ranked in the top 10 in the AL in:
-Strikeouts ten times
-ERA ten times
-RSAA seven times (Runs Saved Against Average)
-Hits/9 nine times
-WHIP eleven times
-K/9 ten times
-BB/9 fourteen times
-K/BB fourteen times
So, Mr. Mussina, your resume is not lacking. You spent your entire career in the AL East, a time when the Jays won two World Series, Yankees won four World Series, Red Sox won two World Series, and the Rays appeared in one world series. Yet you still accumulated these stats.
But I am not writing to tell you that. I am writing to thank you. To thank you for all your shining moments in pinstripes and all the joy you brought to Oriole fans, Yankee fans, and baseball fans. For your entire career you were Mr. Almost. Almost won a World Series. Almost won Cy Young. Almost threw a perfect. Almost won 20 games- until 2008. It was a magical season, in which you were one of the few Yankee bright spots and you made the season more enjoyable, even when we were eliminated. In May after a putrid start against Baltimore, where you did not even survive the first, we thought you were done. It was time to give up. But you battled back. You proved us wrong. On a damp, September Sunday in Boston, you had us watching, even though we were eliminated from the playoffs. We watched because we wanted to see you finally achieve something. Not fall short. And you did it- you finally won that 20th game for the first time.
We love you for your personality. Your post game interviews were a must for any Yankee fan. Your candid dislike of Carl Pavano was great. And in 2006 when you ordered Joe Torre to sit back down on the bench so you could stay in the game, our love grew even deeper for you.
We love you for all your great performances. Your start in game 3 of the 2001 ALDS kept us alive in that series. Seven innings, four hits, one walk, and no runs. Your near perfect game made for an awesome Sunday night duel with David Cone. Your perfect tough lasted twenty six outs and two strikes.
Most of all, we revere you for your epic performance in game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. In the top of the fourth, you made your first career relief appearance. The score was 4-0 Boston with men on first and third and no outs. You struck out Jason Varitek and then got Damon to ground into an inning ending DP. You then threw two more scoreless innings, saving the game and the series for us.
We will miss you, Mr. Mussina and we wish you the best in the future.
Sincerely,
A big fan
P.S. One last time: MOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEE!!!
11/17/08
Horrible ballot
Proof
Quote:
Here's the way I voted:
1. Ryan Howard, Phil
2. CC Sabathia, Mil
3. Manny Ramirez, LA
4. Carlos Delgado, NY
5. Aramis Ramirez, Chi
6. Prince Fielder, Mil
7. Albert Pujols, Stl
8. Ryan Ludwick, Stl
9. Ryan Braun, Mil
10. David Wright, NY
This is a real ballot. This guy seriously voted. This guy seriously put Pujols 7th (!!!1!1!!!!111!), behind CC Sabathia (all 130.7 innings of him), Manny Ramirez (Even though he didn't even total 200 AB in the NL), Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Delgado, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard.
He must of filled out the ballot on the short bus.
Quote:
Here's the way I voted:
1. Ryan Howard, Phil
2. CC Sabathia, Mil
3. Manny Ramirez, LA
4. Carlos Delgado, NY
5. Aramis Ramirez, Chi
6. Prince Fielder, Mil
7. Albert Pujols, Stl
8. Ryan Ludwick, Stl
9. Ryan Braun, Mil
10. David Wright, NY
This is a real ballot. This guy seriously voted. This guy seriously put Pujols 7th (!!!1!1!!!!111!), behind CC Sabathia (all 130.7 innings of him), Manny Ramirez (Even though he didn't even total 200 AB in the NL), Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Delgado, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard.
He must of filled out the ballot on the short bus.
Worst mailbag ever
Which comes courtesy of the Yankees homepage on mlb.com
Question:
The Yankees say they want pitching, so why not get Mark Prior? He's only 28, and a healthy Prior is a Cy Young contender.
-- Mandeep S., Jamaica, N.Y.
Um, whoa, "Mandeep" from Jamaica, NY. Prior hasn't been healthy since 2005 and didn't throw a single Major League pitch in 2007 and 2008. Yet, no worries, he'll still be in Cy Young shape.
Question:
If Jorge Posada goes down again to injury, could they use Jesus Montero as a backup?
-- Kenny S., Greece, N.Y.
Okay, I should cut some people some slack since most don't follow the Minors, but this is a literally retarded question. Montero isn't even 20 and has yet to play a game in high A, yet this person is ready to pencil him as Posada's 2009 backup- even though Jose Molina, defensive wizard, is under contract for 2009. Just the fact he knows who Montero is and what position he plays means he knows something, so I will show no mercy in this dojo. Kenny, you sir, are a disgrace to baseball intellectuality.
Question:
The Yankees say they want pitching, so why not get Mark Prior? He's only 28, and a healthy Prior is a Cy Young contender.
-- Mandeep S., Jamaica, N.Y.
Um, whoa, "Mandeep" from Jamaica, NY. Prior hasn't been healthy since 2005 and didn't throw a single Major League pitch in 2007 and 2008. Yet, no worries, he'll still be in Cy Young shape.
Question:
If Jorge Posada goes down again to injury, could they use Jesus Montero as a backup?
-- Kenny S., Greece, N.Y.
Okay, I should cut some people some slack since most don't follow the Minors, but this is a literally retarded question. Montero isn't even 20 and has yet to play a game in high A, yet this person is ready to pencil him as Posada's 2009 backup- even though Jose Molina, defensive wizard, is under contract for 2009. Just the fact he knows who Montero is and what position he plays means he knows something, so I will show no mercy in this dojo. Kenny, you sir, are a disgrace to baseball intellectuality.
11/13/08
Trade
Today, the Yankees traded Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez, and Jhonny Nunez for Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Teixeira.
What a steal for the Yanks. They gave up three players going pretty much nowhere, for a solid bat who can play all three OF spots and 1b. In over 2000 career AB's he has a 112 OPS+ and early Marcel projections had him achieving a wOBA above .350 (projected for Chicago). Hopefully this doesn't keep the Yanks from looking into Teixeira, but either way its still a great trade.
Swisher was pretty unlucky last year as well:
'07: LD: 20% GB: 38% K: 19.9% BB: 15.2% ISOP: .193 BABIP: .308
'08: LD: 19% GB: 35% K: 22.8% BB: 14.0% ISOP: .191 BABIP: .251
And here are Swisher's contractual obligations for his age 28-31 seasons from Cot's:
09:$5.3M, 10:$6.75M, 11:$9M 12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)
* 2012 option increases to $12M with top 5 in MVP vote any year 2007-11
Teixeira ain't so bad himself.
What a steal for the Yanks. They gave up three players going pretty much nowhere, for a solid bat who can play all three OF spots and 1b. In over 2000 career AB's he has a 112 OPS+ and early Marcel projections had him achieving a wOBA above .350 (projected for Chicago). Hopefully this doesn't keep the Yanks from looking into Teixeira, but either way its still a great trade.
Swisher was pretty unlucky last year as well:
'07: LD: 20% GB: 38% K: 19.9% BB: 15.2% ISOP: .193 BABIP: .308
'08: LD: 19% GB: 35% K: 22.8% BB: 14.0% ISOP: .191 BABIP: .251
And here are Swisher's contractual obligations for his age 28-31 seasons from Cot's:
09:$5.3M, 10:$6.75M, 11:$9M 12:$10.25M club option ($1M buyout)
* 2012 option increases to $12M with top 5 in MVP vote any year 2007-11
Teixeira ain't so bad himself.
11/10/08
Jeremy Bleich
In the Hawaiian League:
30.2 iIP, 7 ER, 24 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 31 K. 1.36 GO/AO
And in his last four starts:
24.2 IP, 28 K, 1 BB
Yeah.
30.2 iIP, 7 ER, 24 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 31 K. 1.36 GO/AO
And in his last four starts:
24.2 IP, 28 K, 1 BB
Yeah.
John Manuel taken to school
By another anonymous forum poster:
Career MLB totals - % of fastballs thrown
Slowey - 66%
Hughes - 64.9%
Chamberlain - 64.8%%
Blackburn - 49.4%
Ah, gotta love writers with a broad audience who do zero research.
| john manuel wrote: |
| I know the Twins throw more fastballs with those two guys [Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey] in particular being fastball guys, whereas Hughes and Joba both have plus breaking balls. |
Career MLB totals - % of fastballs thrown
Slowey - 66%
Hughes - 64.9%
Chamberlain - 64.8%%
Blackburn - 49.4%
Ah, gotta love writers with a broad audience who do zero research.
BA: Top 10 Yankee prospects
Baseball America ranked the Yankees top 10 prospects after the 2008 season:
Overall, the list seems pretty weak. Melancon is a better talent than Coke or Aceves, and should be ranked that way. #4 for Romine seems generous and the same goes for Brackman at #3, even if his talent is worthy of that spot. McCallister should be higher than #6, after posting a 128 tRA+ in Charleston and a 130 tRA+ in Tampa. Not to mention he had an outstanding 5.48 K/BB ratio. And even though Suttle had a decent year in Charleston, he did so as a 23 year old.
Now, the Yankees system is still solid with several amazingly high ceiling players. But the BA top 10 isn't the most lavish top 10. That can be attributed to a couple graduates from the list, such as Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.
One complaint though about farm systems. So I will let an anonymous forum person sum up my thoughts:
| 1. Austin Jackson, of- Best Defensive Outfielder | |
| 2. Jesus Montero, c- Best Power Hitter | |
| 3. Andrew Brackman, rhp- Best Fastball | |
| 4. Austin Romine, c | |
| 5. Dellin Betances, rhp | |
| 6. Zach McAllister, rhp- Best Control | |
| 7. Alfredo Aceves, rhp | |
| 8. Phil Coke, lhp | |
| 9. Mark Melancon, rhp | |
| 10. Bradley Suttle, 3b- Best Hitter for Average |
Overall, the list seems pretty weak. Melancon is a better talent than Coke or Aceves, and should be ranked that way. #4 for Romine seems generous and the same goes for Brackman at #3, even if his talent is worthy of that spot. McCallister should be higher than #6, after posting a 128 tRA+ in Charleston and a 130 tRA+ in Tampa. Not to mention he had an outstanding 5.48 K/BB ratio. And even though Suttle had a decent year in Charleston, he did so as a 23 year old.
Now, the Yankees system is still solid with several amazingly high ceiling players. But the BA top 10 isn't the most lavish top 10. That can be attributed to a couple graduates from the list, such as Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.
One complaint though about farm systems. So I will let an anonymous forum person sum up my thoughts:
Also, take a look at the Red Sox’s top ten, whose farm system is supposedly leaps and bounds better than whatever the Yankees have to offer.
Nick Hagadone is number 3. He’s going to be 23 on the first day of 2009, and has pitched a grand total of 35 innings of professional baseball.
Daniel Bard, the man with a 99mph fastball and nothing else, is number 4.
And yet, the Red Sox are baseball’s model franchise and the Yankees are nothing but dirt beneath their feet.
AL Rookie of Year
Longoria - 140 (34.7 VORP)
Ramirez - 59 (20.7 VORP)
Ellsbury - 26 (17.8 VORP)
.....
Joba - 1 (32.3 VORP)
This is just one stat, but it goes to show how stupid the voters are. Until he was hurt, I would have had no problem giving the award to Joba. Even after the injury, he was still better than Ramirez and obviously way better than Chief Runs Fast. I mean, Ellsbury in third place is bad enough.
Ramirez - 59 (20.7 VORP)
Ellsbury - 26 (17.8 VORP)
.....
Joba - 1 (32.3 VORP)
This is just one stat, but it goes to show how stupid the voters are. Until he was hurt, I would have had no problem giving the award to Joba. Even after the injury, he was still better than Ramirez and obviously way better than Chief Runs Fast. I mean, Ellsbury in third place is bad enough.
11/4/08
Dumbing down America, by Wallace Matthews
You will not read a dumber article this winter.
Keeping Joba in the bullpen as Rivera's setup man is the way the Yankees can re-establish that kind of late-game dominance... That should be the Yankees' objective with Joba, turning him into Mo's understudy with the aim of becoming Mo's replacement. That will win them a lot more games than Ramirez's bat or his flaky personality.
Um, whoa. Wallace believes the Yanks don't need CC, Tex, Manny, or any other free agent. What they need is Joba to pitch 60 innings a season. I don't know what's worse-the fact that he is still harping on this or the fact that Joba was actually better as a starter than a reliever in 2008, and yet his solution is to put him in the pen.
Going off VORP, Manny was worth about 5 wins last season. Mariano, in arguably the best season of his career, was worth about 3.5 wins. So yeah, I'm sure making Joba face less batters over the course of a season will win more games than the bat of Manny or Teixeira.
From people like Matthews who want to dominate late innings, I ask: how are we going to get there? Yes, it's nice that our 8th and 9th inning guys are good pitchers. But what's the point if we are consistently losing? If Wallace was in charge, his rotation as of today is Wang and that's it. But since he doesn't want a free agent or Joba, we can pencil in Wang, Hughes, Aceves, Kennedy, whoever. That sounds like a winning rotation to me!
It's called shortening the game, and the Yankees used to do it better than anyone.
It's called stupidity, and Wallace Matthews does it better than anyone.
Keeping Joba in the bullpen as Rivera's setup man is the way the Yankees can re-establish that kind of late-game dominance... That should be the Yankees' objective with Joba, turning him into Mo's understudy with the aim of becoming Mo's replacement. That will win them a lot more games than Ramirez's bat or his flaky personality.
Um, whoa. Wallace believes the Yanks don't need CC, Tex, Manny, or any other free agent. What they need is Joba to pitch 60 innings a season. I don't know what's worse-the fact that he is still harping on this or the fact that Joba was actually better as a starter than a reliever in 2008, and yet his solution is to put him in the pen.
Going off VORP, Manny was worth about 5 wins last season. Mariano, in arguably the best season of his career, was worth about 3.5 wins. So yeah, I'm sure making Joba face less batters over the course of a season will win more games than the bat of Manny or Teixeira.
From people like Matthews who want to dominate late innings, I ask: how are we going to get there? Yes, it's nice that our 8th and 9th inning guys are good pitchers. But what's the point if we are consistently losing? If Wallace was in charge, his rotation as of today is Wang and that's it. But since he doesn't want a free agent or Joba, we can pencil in Wang, Hughes, Aceves, Kennedy, whoever. That sounds like a winning rotation to me!
It's called shortening the game, and the Yankees used to do it better than anyone.
It's called stupidity, and Wallace Matthews does it better than anyone.
LA Dodgers: Trying to miss the playoffs
Quote: According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, some Dodger officials have spread the word that Russell Martin will either be traded or moved to third base.
Between Colletti, McCourt, and Torre, I feel bad for Dodgers. The Dodgers want to move him because of a perceived attitude problem and a down year.
1. This is from the team that signed Kent and traded for Manny
2. Martin is a 25 year old, cost-controlled catcher who in the past three seasons has put up a wOBA* of .349, .370, and .353 with above average defense. Martin was 5th among MLB catchers in 2008 wOBA*. I guess those numbers, coming from a young catcher, are just not good enough for Colletti.
The thing is, it seems as if the Dodgers have really soured on him. I know the Yanks are not linked to him in a trade and I doubt they show interest, but if I was Cashman, I'd be on the phone with LA right now.
Between Colletti, McCourt, and Torre, I feel bad for Dodgers. The Dodgers want to move him because of a perceived attitude problem and a down year.
1. This is from the team that signed Kent and traded for Manny
2. Martin is a 25 year old, cost-controlled catcher who in the past three seasons has put up a wOBA* of .349, .370, and .353 with above average defense. Martin was 5th among MLB catchers in 2008 wOBA*. I guess those numbers, coming from a young catcher, are just not good enough for Colletti.
The thing is, it seems as if the Dodgers have really soured on him. I know the Yanks are not linked to him in a trade and I doubt they show interest, but if I was Cashman, I'd be on the phone with LA right now.
11/3/08
Cameron, Marte, Mitre
- Mike Cameron's option was exercised by the Brewers today. This is bad news for the Yanks, who could have signed Cameron to one a year deal as an effective stop gap until Austin Jackson is ready in 2010.
- It looks like the Yankees are going to decline Marte's option. I am against this. By picking up his option, they would have an effective reliever for 2009 and take his picks after he walks then. Or, sign and trade Marte, where he could bring in a return more significant than draft picks.
- Today, the Yankees inked Sergio Mitre to a one year deal worth $1.25 mil with an option for 2010.
He is currently rehabbing from TJS and won't be ready to pitch in live games until July or August of 2009. Previously, Mitre pitched for the Cubs and Marlins, and even pitched for Joe Girardi in 2006.
Over the course of 310.7 innings spread over five seasons (78 G and 52 GS), Mitre has a 5.36 ERA, 81 ERA+, 1.545 WHIP, and 1.74 K/BB. Not so hot, right? Well, Sergio Mitre could turn out to be a good signing for the New York Yankees. To prove this, lets look deeper into the numbers posted by Mitre from 2004-2007.
2004: 47 IP, 4.44 tRA, 108 tRA+, 2.2 pRAA
2005: 43.3 IP, 4.16 tRA, 109 tRA+, 2.1 pRAA
2006: 35 IP, 5.78 tRA, 86 tRA+, -2.8 pRAA
2007: 149 IP, 4.78 tRA, 104 tRA+, 3.6 pRAA
Outside 2006, Mitre has proven he can be an average starting pitcher, albeit in a small sample for a duration of five seasons. Along with this, Mitre has had some bad luck. His O-xO has been negative in every season and his xR-R has been negative in every season but run. Both suggest he has been plagued by bad defense or a bad park. In Chicago he pitched in a hitter friendly park and in Florida, he pitched in about a neutral park. A look at Team Defense Efficiency can confirm if he did in fact suffer from bad defenses. However, since he only passed 100 innings in a season during 2007, that is the only season will look at.
2007: .661 (29/30)
Ouch. That is bad. That horrendous TDE affirms the fact that Mitre's defense dependent stats suffered from a bad Marlin's defense.
Now, not only does Mitre appear to be an average or serviceable pitcher, but he is also an appealing pitcher. Why? Because he is an extreme GB pitcher. Here are his numbers from 2004-2007.
2004: 59.4 GB%, 2.38 GB/FB
2005: 65.8 GB%, 2.96 GB/FB
2006: 51.9 GB%, 1.86 GB/FB
2007: 59.7 GB%, 2.61 GB/FB
Total: 60.1 GB%, 2.53 GB/FB
That is very good. If Mitre can get ground balls at this rate, with a Yankee infield helping him out, then Mitre could be a bargain.
This is one of those low risk, high reward type moves that all GM's should be looking for. The main complaint is that the Yankees are giving this guy $1.25 mil when he won't even be ready to pitch until July. However, it is only paid if he reaches the majors. If he reaches the majors, then that means he has been good enough to earn it. Plus, it is prorated so if he joins the club mid-season, they owe him 500k. Mitre does have a ton of potential and upside, so its worth signing him should he somehow realize it. If he doesn't work out, then no money or roster spot is wasted.
Mitre's upside is related not only to a nasty sinker, but a great minor league resume. In 589.2 minor league innings, he has a 3.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.03 K/BB.
An idea with Mitre, besides providing pitching depth with upside, is to make him a productive reliever. As a reliever, his K rates have been up. So considering the surgery and his prior "failures" as a starter, turning him into a reliever could be a good idea.
For 2009, I have a projection for Mitre of 30 IP between August and September, with a 5.00 ERA. That gives him a WAR of 0.23, and thus his value would be about $1.41 mil. Considering the Yanks probably won't even pay him $1 mil, this could be a steal.
Now, I am not trying to make Mitre sound like the savior. But it is just an example that low
risk high reward deals are the small, unnoticed deals can be good bargains for professional
teams.
risk high reward deals are the small, unnoticed deals can be good bargains for professional
teams.
10/29/08
It's a shame no one is watching...
...because this shaped up to be the best series since 2002 (and it only went 5 games).
Once again Madden waits too long to throw Price and it costs him the game and the World Series.
Congrats to the Phillies.
And here's to the 2009 World Champs: the New York Yankees
Once again Madden waits too long to throw Price and it costs him the game and the World Series.
Congrats to the Phillies.
And here's to the 2009 World Champs: the New York Yankees
10/22/08
10/20/08
Yankees rumors
John Peretto:
Quote:
Perrotto expects a Jake Peavy deal to be done before the Winter Meetings, stating that the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers seem to be the leaders in the race right now. He notes that the Yankees will be willing to include Phil Hughes, while the Braves are willing to move Yunel Escobar.
Quote:
The Yankees are planning on using Joba Chamberlain in their rotation next year, but are not planning on settling for what they have. Perrotto states that the Yankees will "go all-in" on the free agent market, making aggressive offers to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Mark Teixeira.
Olney:
Quote:
The Yankees seem almost destined to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason, but while it's been suggested that Teixeira is seeking upwards of 10 years, $200MM, the Yankees may be looking to offer half of that, or "a deal in the range of 6 years, $18-20MM a year." Good news for the Orioles who look to be the biggest competitor for the Yankees in pursuing both Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.
The Yankees are gearing up to offer CC Sabathia "an offer that may dwarf those of other clubs, by a factor of 30 or 40 percent." Olney feels that may be a necessary surcharge to convince Sabathia to pitch in the Big Apple.
A rumor is a rumor, but it is good to see we are front runners for the top available players this off-season.
Also, congratulations to the Rays and Phillies on making the WS.
Quote:
Perrotto expects a Jake Peavy deal to be done before the Winter Meetings, stating that the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers seem to be the leaders in the race right now. He notes that the Yankees will be willing to include Phil Hughes, while the Braves are willing to move Yunel Escobar.
Quote:
The Yankees are planning on using Joba Chamberlain in their rotation next year, but are not planning on settling for what they have. Perrotto states that the Yankees will "go all-in" on the free agent market, making aggressive offers to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Mark Teixeira.
Olney:
Quote:
The Yankees seem almost destined to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason, but while it's been suggested that Teixeira is seeking upwards of 10 years, $200MM, the Yankees may be looking to offer half of that, or "a deal in the range of 6 years, $18-20MM a year." Good news for the Orioles who look to be the biggest competitor for the Yankees in pursuing both Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.
The Yankees are gearing up to offer CC Sabathia "an offer that may dwarf those of other clubs, by a factor of 30 or 40 percent." Olney feels that may be a necessary surcharge to convince Sabathia to pitch in the Big Apple.
A rumor is a rumor, but it is good to see we are front runners for the top available players this off-season.
Also, congratulations to the Rays and Phillies on making the WS.
2009 Rays
The Rays have arrived quite a bit ahead of schedule. This year was supposed to be a year of great improvement, but no one had them pegged as a legit playoff contender. Most people believed 2009-2011 would be their prime years to make a run at a championship. However, thanks to much improved defense and a bullpen that is actually serviceable (along with a decent offense), the Rays are in the World Series.
Predicting the World Series is often times a crap-shoot. Are the Rays the better team than the Phillies? Probably. The Phillies had a slightly higher run differential, but the Rays were playing in the hardest division in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus's "Secret Sauce," the Rays were the 6th best playoff team while the Phils were the 12th. (Secret Sauce takes the things that most strongly correlate to playoff success, starting pitching, defense, closer, and ranks teams based on these factors). All-in-all, this should be one of the most interesting World Series in recent memory.
However, I am intrigued by how stacked the Rays are in terms of young talent, especially starting pitchers. Next year, the team basically has four guaranteed starters. They are; Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price. That leaves 4 pitchers fighting for the 5th spot. They are; Andy Sonnanstine, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann.
Wade Davis
Davis had a 3.85 in 19 AA games this year and a 2.72 ERA in 9 AAA games this year. These numbers were supported by a 3.95 FIP. That means he got slightly lucky, but nothing substantial. He is looked at by many as the top Rays prospect outside of Price.
Jake McGee
McGee could make a case for being the top prospect in the organization. The lefty spent all of 2008 in AA and compiled a 3.94 ERA. This was his worst year out of his 3 total professional seasons, and most of this trouble can be chalked up to a diminished SO rate (just under 8 per 9 innings). If he could become the dominating strike out pitcher he was in the lower levels of the minor leagues, he could be a great #5 starter for the Rays.
Jeff Niemann
The 6' 9" Niemann was the Rays 1st pick in the 2004 draft. He has the experience edge over the younger Davis and McGee. In 2 full seasons at AAA, Niemann has posted ERAs in the upper 3's with good strikeout numbers and decent walk numbers. He was called up to the majors late this year and pitched 16 mediocre innings.
Andy Sonnanstine
Sonnanstine has a career 4.97 ERA, but his 4.05 FIP says he should be a lot better than that. He doesn't strike many people out, so the fact that the Rays have a great defense should benefit him more than others, especially because he has impeccable control.
Really, any of these four pitchers are amazing considering they are going to be the 5th starter for the Rays. If I had to guess, I would say Sonnanstine or Niemann start the season as the 5th starter while Davis and McGee start in AAA. How good is this team going to be next year? If it wasn't for the expected Yankees spending, I would say they would be the heavy favorites in the AL East.
Predicting the World Series is often times a crap-shoot. Are the Rays the better team than the Phillies? Probably. The Phillies had a slightly higher run differential, but the Rays were playing in the hardest division in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus's "Secret Sauce," the Rays were the 6th best playoff team while the Phils were the 12th. (Secret Sauce takes the things that most strongly correlate to playoff success, starting pitching, defense, closer, and ranks teams based on these factors). All-in-all, this should be one of the most interesting World Series in recent memory.
However, I am intrigued by how stacked the Rays are in terms of young talent, especially starting pitchers. Next year, the team basically has four guaranteed starters. They are; Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price. That leaves 4 pitchers fighting for the 5th spot. They are; Andy Sonnanstine, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann.
Wade Davis
Davis had a 3.85 in 19 AA games this year and a 2.72 ERA in 9 AAA games this year. These numbers were supported by a 3.95 FIP. That means he got slightly lucky, but nothing substantial. He is looked at by many as the top Rays prospect outside of Price.
Jake McGee
McGee could make a case for being the top prospect in the organization. The lefty spent all of 2008 in AA and compiled a 3.94 ERA. This was his worst year out of his 3 total professional seasons, and most of this trouble can be chalked up to a diminished SO rate (just under 8 per 9 innings). If he could become the dominating strike out pitcher he was in the lower levels of the minor leagues, he could be a great #5 starter for the Rays.
Jeff Niemann
The 6' 9" Niemann was the Rays 1st pick in the 2004 draft. He has the experience edge over the younger Davis and McGee. In 2 full seasons at AAA, Niemann has posted ERAs in the upper 3's with good strikeout numbers and decent walk numbers. He was called up to the majors late this year and pitched 16 mediocre innings.
Andy Sonnanstine
Sonnanstine has a career 4.97 ERA, but his 4.05 FIP says he should be a lot better than that. He doesn't strike many people out, so the fact that the Rays have a great defense should benefit him more than others, especially because he has impeccable control.
Really, any of these four pitchers are amazing considering they are going to be the 5th starter for the Rays. If I had to guess, I would say Sonnanstine or Niemann start the season as the 5th starter while Davis and McGee start in AAA. How good is this team going to be next year? If it wasn't for the expected Yankees spending, I would say they would be the heavy favorites in the AL East.
10/13/08
Some people should just quit life
From the ESPN playoff blog:
Quote:
If they lose, perhaps being down 3-1 is where the Red Sox most feel comfortable in ALCS play. They were there a year ago against Cleveland, and they were there in '04 against New York (after being down 3-0, of course).
Yeah, that makes sense. The Red Sox want to be down 3-1 because they are most comfortable there.
You can't make this stuff up.
Quote:
If they lose, perhaps being down 3-1 is where the Red Sox most feel comfortable in ALCS play. They were there a year ago against Cleveland, and they were there in '04 against New York (after being down 3-0, of course).
Yeah, that makes sense. The Red Sox want to be down 3-1 because they are most comfortable there.
You can't make this stuff up.
Tulowitzki=Rollins in '07
Okay, as the title states, Troy Tulowitzki was as good as Jimmy Rollins last year . That's right, the rookie that didn't even win rookie of the year was better than the MVP of the league (and SS Gold Glove winner) last year. How is this possible? Well for one, Rollins didn't really deserve the MVP. Wright, Holliday, or even Hanley Ramirez would have been the much better selection. Now back to the discussion at hand. I will first compare offensive statistics, followed by defensive statistics, and finally get to "all-in-one" stats that incorporate both.
In 2007, Jimmy Rollins posted the following stats:
Rollins' Batting Statistics -..296BA/.344OBP/.531SLG .292 EqA (Equivalent Average) 53 BRAR (Batting Runs Above Replacement)...(remember this number for later).
As you can see, Jimmy Rollins was very solid at the plate last year, but his numbers were slightly overrated. From a shortstop they were great, but that argument won't come into play here because Tulo played the same position. Now, the main flaw Jimmy Rollins has is that he doesn't walk that much. His BB% of 6.4 led to a OBP of .344 (which as many of you know, is the single most important non-advanced stat when judging a player). This means he made an out 66% of the time he came up to the plate (which led him to his league leading 504 outs. Now, he obviously made up for his lackluster on-base ability by slugging the hell out of the ball. He did this extremely well, and slugging is the 2nd most important basic statistic, but it doesn't exactly make up for his OBP 100%.
Now onto Troy Tulowitzki's 2007 offensive statistics. Tulo is not as good of a hitter as Rollins. It wasn't that close last year. I will post the stats anyway because we have to have a common ground of judging offense vs. defense.
Tulowitzki'sBatting Statistics -.291BA/.359OBP/.479SLG .280 EqA 30 BRAR (remember this number for later)
Now I'm not going to try to skew the stats to make Tulo look offensively superior to Rollins. I'm just going to say he had quite a bit better OBP (remember, the most important basic offensive statistic). Obviously Rollins' superiority on the base-paths and in the slugging department make up for it though.
Let's take a look at the defensive statistics now.
Tulowitzki's Fielding Statistics -.987F%(1st among SS), 5.39RF(1st), .866ZR(2nd), 87OOZ(1st), 50 FRAR (1st...remember this for later).
Now Tulo had a defensive season for the ages. The greatest fielding SS of all-time, Ozzie Smith, had only 3 seasons with a FRAR above 50. Only 3! Being a rookie makes this even more amazing. He made the highest percentage of balls he fielded (F%), he made the highest percentage of plays in his zone (ZR), he made the most plays out of his zone (OOZ), and he reached the most balls(RF) among shortstops.
Rollins' Fielding Statistics -..985F%(3rd), 4.41RF(13th), .824ZR(11th), 65OOZ(T-5th), 27FRAR (remember this for later).
Like the differences in batting, their is a huge difference in the two players' fielding stats as well. What I'm arguing is that the difference in fielding is greater than the difference of batting.
Tulowitzki's Combined Stats
WARP 9.0, WARP2 11.4, WARP3, 11.3, 25 Win Shares, .668 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
Rollin’s Combined Stats
WARP 8.9, WARP2 11.3, WARP3, 11.3, 28 Win Shares, .666 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
As you can see, the two players were almost completely identical last year. Their WARPs (Wins Above Replacement Player) are just about identical. This means that they were each roughly 11 wins better than a fringe AAA/MLB SS. Rollins has the slight edge in Win Shares (a total measure of the value of a player), but this can be attributed to him having more ABs. If you look at WSP, which is basically Win Shares presented as a rate stat, Tulo has the slight edge.
These two players were almost identical last year IMO. One was a world class slugger, while the other did the things that normally fly under the radar (got on base and played great defense). Eventually, one received the NL MVP award and NL SS Golden Glove, while the other didn’t even win rookie of the year. Despite the discrepancies in recognition, Tulo was Rollins’ equal last year.
In 2007, Jimmy Rollins posted the following stats:
Rollins' Batting Statistics -..296BA/.344OBP/.531SLG .292 EqA (Equivalent Average) 53 BRAR (Batting Runs Above Replacement)...(remember this number for later).
As you can see, Jimmy Rollins was very solid at the plate last year, but his numbers were slightly overrated. From a shortstop they were great, but that argument won't come into play here because Tulo played the same position. Now, the main flaw Jimmy Rollins has is that he doesn't walk that much. His BB% of 6.4 led to a OBP of .344 (which as many of you know, is the single most important non-advanced stat when judging a player). This means he made an out 66% of the time he came up to the plate (which led him to his league leading 504 outs. Now, he obviously made up for his lackluster on-base ability by slugging the hell out of the ball. He did this extremely well, and slugging is the 2nd most important basic statistic, but it doesn't exactly make up for his OBP 100%.
Now onto Troy Tulowitzki's 2007 offensive statistics. Tulo is not as good of a hitter as Rollins. It wasn't that close last year. I will post the stats anyway because we have to have a common ground of judging offense vs. defense.
Tulowitzki'sBatting Statistics -.291BA/.359OBP/.479SLG .280 EqA 30 BRAR (remember this number for later)
Now I'm not going to try to skew the stats to make Tulo look offensively superior to Rollins. I'm just going to say he had quite a bit better OBP (remember, the most important basic offensive statistic). Obviously Rollins' superiority on the base-paths and in the slugging department make up for it though.
Let's take a look at the defensive statistics now.
Tulowitzki's Fielding Statistics -.987F%(1st among SS), 5.39RF(1st), .866ZR(2nd), 87OOZ(1st), 50 FRAR (1st...remember this for later).
Now Tulo had a defensive season for the ages. The greatest fielding SS of all-time, Ozzie Smith, had only 3 seasons with a FRAR above 50. Only 3! Being a rookie makes this even more amazing. He made the highest percentage of balls he fielded (F%), he made the highest percentage of plays in his zone (ZR), he made the most plays out of his zone (OOZ), and he reached the most balls(RF) among shortstops.
Rollins' Fielding Statistics -..985F%(3rd), 4.41RF(13th), .824ZR(11th), 65OOZ(T-5th), 27FRAR (remember this for later).
Like the differences in batting, their is a huge difference in the two players' fielding stats as well. What I'm arguing is that the difference in fielding is greater than the difference of batting.
Tulowitzki's Combined Stats
WARP 9.0, WARP2 11.4, WARP3, 11.3, 25 Win Shares, .668 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
Rollin’s Combined Stats
WARP 8.9, WARP2 11.3, WARP3, 11.3, 28 Win Shares, .666 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
As you can see, the two players were almost completely identical last year. Their WARPs (Wins Above Replacement Player) are just about identical. This means that they were each roughly 11 wins better than a fringe AAA/MLB SS. Rollins has the slight edge in Win Shares (a total measure of the value of a player), but this can be attributed to him having more ABs. If you look at WSP, which is basically Win Shares presented as a rate stat, Tulo has the slight edge.
These two players were almost identical last year IMO. One was a world class slugger, while the other did the things that normally fly under the radar (got on base and played great defense). Eventually, one received the NL MVP award and NL SS Golden Glove, while the other didn’t even win rookie of the year. Despite the discrepancies in recognition, Tulo was Rollins’ equal last year.
10/10/08
He just said whaaaaat...?
During Game 1 of the ALCS, Buck Martinez said the following about Dice-BB: "You don't luck your way into 18 wins"
What? Huh? Did he just...seriously say? Whah?
4.17 tRA, 4.03 FIP, 5.05 BB/9, and 1.64 K/BB say he did luck his way into 18 wins.
What? Huh? Did he just...seriously say? Whah?
4.17 tRA, 4.03 FIP, 5.05 BB/9, and 1.64 K/BB say he did luck his way into 18 wins.
10/6/08
2009 Free Agent Second Basemen
The 2009 MLB Free Agent market is going to be dominated by starting pitchers and outfielders. CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn headline a pretty talented group of players. One position that is bound to get overlooked is second base. There are the usual “scrappy,” “always getting their jersey dirty” players that litter the 2b free agent market year after year. Nick Punto, the epitome of “scrap” himself David Eckstein, and Mark Grudzielanek all fit this mold. Unfortunately, none of these guys are really good at baseball anymore. And when it comes down to it, there are really only two guys to oogle about when looking at free agent second baseman. These two men are, of course, Mark Ellis and Orlando Hudson.
Let’s start by looking at Mark Ellis. Ellis is a career .265/.337/.407. These are very average offensive numbers for a 2b (near replacement level in fact). However, Ellis happens to be the best or 2nd best fielding second baseman in the league. This year he had a FRAR of 25 (or about 2.5 wins). In ’07 he was even better with a FRAR of 45. That kind of defense alone could push many teams on the bubble into the playoffs, including my Cardinals. Ellis is also an animal when looking at Zone Rating. He lead all MLB second baseman this year with a .868 ZR. Last year he was even better (.887). With this kind of defensive production, he only needs to produce slightly above his career numbers to be in the second tier of MLB second baseman. In 2007, for instance, he was one of the best second basemen in the game. He posted a .276/.336/.441 line. This was a bit inflated by a .302 BABIP (career .293), but those kind of numbers (or close to them) are very doable.
This is not the best part about what Ellis will bring to his future employers. It is almost a guarantee that Ellis will be drastically underpaid next year. After posting a line of .233/.321/.373, teams might get the impression he is on the decline. However, Ellis was almost Cano-like with his luck. He had a .249 BABIP last year, nearly 50 points lower than his career numbers. With a decent LD% of 14.7%, we see that he should have hit nearly 40 points better (.267). If he would have hit .267 last year he would have been one of the best second baseman in the league. Now, however, a team can get top 6-10 second baseman production for cheap.
Orlando Hudson was having a career year before his season was ended prematurely after dislocating his wrist. His .817 OPS was the same as he had in ’07 (his previous career high). For his career he is a .282/.346/.433 hitter. He has been much better than this though since arriving at
When it is all said and done, I would expect both of these players to put up similar numbers in ’09. One will play gold glove defense while the other will “compete” for the Silver Slugger (Utley has it locked up for about the next 5 years). Both are just outside of their prime (Ellis 32, Hudson 31), so a 3-4 year contract makes decent sense. However, one will be slightly overpaid while the other will be underpaid. If your team is in need for a 2b this off-season, hope they sign Mark Ellis. If they don’t, Orlando Hudson will be pretty damn good as well.
10/5/08
Praise
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/10/05/sabathia/index.html?eref=T1
| Quote: |
| The Yankees, whose overall revenue will skyrocket to a sport-high $400 million-plus next year, are expected to make a big pitch for Sabathia, who said after the Brewers were eliminated with a 6-2 Phillies victory that he'd consider any team that shows interest this winter, including the Brewers, the Yankees or anyone else. Sabathia, 28, had only positive words for Milwaukee. "I'd be lying if I didn't say it was one of the better times in my life and my career,'' he said. "I enjoyed my time here and we accomplished a lot.'' He also complimented interim manager Dale Sveum, pitching coach Mike Maddux and many of his Brewers teammates. But Sabathia also said, "I'll play anywhere,'' and kept the Yankees in play, saying of New York, "I enjoy that city. They've got a brand new stadium. We'll have to see what happens.'' "'Coming to a new city showed me it's pretty much the same anywhere,'' he said. ... Sabathia took a swipe at the conventional wisdom that says he much preferred to go home to California to play. "All those who say I only want to go back to California to play, that's not true,'' Sabathia said. He said he loved batting but wouldn't go so far as to say that that preference would eliminate American League teams. "I'll play anywhere,'' he said. |
Robinson Cano: Looking back on 2008 and looking ahead to 2009
2008 was a 'pathetic' year for Robinson Cano. Entering 2008, many experts believed Cano was becoming the best second baseman in the AL, if he wasn't already. After a putrid April, he was unable to recover offensively and despite playing amazing defense in the first half, that deteriorated in the past two months as well. So what went wrong with Cano in 2008 and what can we expect in 2009?
At first glance, Cano's line looks horrible- .271/.305/.410/.715 with an 88 OPS+, .247 EqA, .324 wOBA*, and -8.2 bRAA. However, Cano performed better than his line suggests, especially since it was affected by his bad start in April. In 114 April PA's, he hit .151/.211/.236/.446. Ouch. From that point forward, however, Cano was much a better hitter. From May to the end of the season, Cano hit .297/.326/.448/.774 in 520 PA's, giving him an above league average line, before adjusting for position.
Cano also underwent some horrible luck this past season. His BABIP was .286, 37 points below his career BABIP. Moreover, despite his bad line, Cano had a 19.4 LD%, which was actually 2.5% better than his LD% in 2007. With a 19.4 LD% Cano's xBABIP was .314., meaning Cano should have had about 16 more hits on balls he put into play. Factoring in these 16 hits as singles, his expected line would be .298/.338/.437/.775. With those expected hits factored in, his line goes from below average, to above average, showing the extent of his bad luck. But that line assumes all 16 hits were singles. Here’s how non-out line drives have been distributed as far as types of hits over the last couple of seasons.
Another crazy part about Cano's season is that all his peripherals suggest he should have had a solid season. In 2008, Cano had the lowest K% and GB% of his career, along with the best FB% of his career. According to OPS-PrOPS, Cano was in the top 20 for biggest difference between actual OPS and projected OPS. Again, that just goes to show his immense bad luck and that he was not as bad as his numbers suggest.
Also, in the second half Cano hit .307/.333/.482/.815. Including his second half, Cano's 1992 PA sample size of solid offensive numbers speak more volume than his 370 PA sample size of his bad first half in 2008- a sample size which was influenced by bad luck. Therefore, Cano should be fine for a 2009 rebound, especially considering the changes he made to his swing at the end of September.
As the pictures show, Cano previously had an open stance and a lot of bat movement before the pitch. With an open stance, Cano would then have to close his stance and get his bat into the load position all before his swing. All that movement was becoming a problem. Much like a pitcher with an elaborate windup, all the movement was breeding inconsistency in his swing. With the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, Cano now has a near square stance, with his feet a little wider apart. The result is less movement prior to the pitch and throughout the swing- thus a more consistent, compact swing with no wasted motion. Kevin Long also plans to work with Cano this winter in the Dominican Republic, giving more hope that an improved swing will lead to improved offensive numbers in 2009.
Finally, Cano had an average to below average year defensively. His final ZR was .810. At the All-Star Break (89 games) his ZR was .865, good for second best in MLB after Mark Ellis and his RS was +8. However, from the break to 9/4 (48 games), his ZR was .692 and he was -8 RS. That is horrible. In fact, it was the worst stretch of defense from any 2b in a season with over 300 innings. After that putrid stretch, he had an .884 ZR for the rest of the season. Even though Cano played 111 games of +12 RS defense, that small 48 game sample size was bad enough that he still finished -4 RS for the season. His sample size of solid defense from the past couple seasons is larger than that 48 game stretch, so he should project as average to above average with the glove in 2009.
Overall, 2008 was a major disappointment for Robinson Cano. He was not as bad as his stats suggest, but his expected numbers were still below most predictions and expectations for 2008. With better luck and an improved swing, Cano should expect a rebound year in 2009 and get back on track to becoming a solid second baseman.
At first glance, Cano's line looks horrible- .271/.305/.410/.715 with an 88 OPS+, .247 EqA, .324 wOBA*, and -8.2 bRAA. However, Cano performed better than his line suggests, especially since it was affected by his bad start in April. In 114 April PA's, he hit .151/.211/.236/.446. Ouch. From that point forward, however, Cano was much a better hitter. From May to the end of the season, Cano hit .297/.326/.448/.774 in 520 PA's, giving him an above league average line, before adjusting for position.
Cano also underwent some horrible luck this past season. His BABIP was .286, 37 points below his career BABIP. Moreover, despite his bad line, Cano had a 19.4 LD%, which was actually 2.5% better than his LD% in 2007. With a 19.4 LD% Cano's xBABIP was .314., meaning Cano should have had about 16 more hits on balls he put into play. Factoring in these 16 hits as singles, his expected line would be .298/.338/.437/.775. With those expected hits factored in, his line goes from below average, to above average, showing the extent of his bad luck. But that line assumes all 16 hits were singles. Here’s how non-out line drives have been distributed as far as types of hits over the last couple of seasons.
1B 61.6%
2B 34.2%
3B 1.4%
HR 2.7%
Another crazy part about Cano's season is that all his peripherals suggest he should have had a solid season. In 2008, Cano had the lowest K% and GB% of his career, along with the best FB% of his career. According to OPS-PrOPS, Cano was in the top 20 for biggest difference between actual OPS and projected OPS. Again, that just goes to show his immense bad luck and that he was not as bad as his numbers suggest.
Also, in the second half Cano hit .307/.333/.482/.815. Including his second half, Cano's 1992 PA sample size of solid offensive numbers speak more volume than his 370 PA sample size of his bad first half in 2008- a sample size which was influenced by bad luck. Therefore, Cano should be fine for a 2009 rebound, especially considering the changes he made to his swing at the end of September.
As the pictures show, Cano previously had an open stance and a lot of bat movement before the pitch. With an open stance, Cano would then have to close his stance and get his bat into the load position all before his swing. All that movement was becoming a problem. Much like a pitcher with an elaborate windup, all the movement was breeding inconsistency in his swing. With the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, Cano now has a near square stance, with his feet a little wider apart. The result is less movement prior to the pitch and throughout the swing- thus a more consistent, compact swing with no wasted motion. Kevin Long also plans to work with Cano this winter in the Dominican Republic, giving more hope that an improved swing will lead to improved offensive numbers in 2009.
Finally, Cano had an average to below average year defensively. His final ZR was .810. At the All-Star Break (89 games) his ZR was .865, good for second best in MLB after Mark Ellis and his RS was +8. However, from the break to 9/4 (48 games), his ZR was .692 and he was -8 RS. That is horrible. In fact, it was the worst stretch of defense from any 2b in a season with over 300 innings. After that putrid stretch, he had an .884 ZR for the rest of the season. Even though Cano played 111 games of +12 RS defense, that small 48 game sample size was bad enough that he still finished -4 RS for the season. His sample size of solid defense from the past couple seasons is larger than that 48 game stretch, so he should project as average to above average with the glove in 2009.
Overall, 2008 was a major disappointment for Robinson Cano. He was not as bad as his stats suggest, but his expected numbers were still below most predictions and expectations for 2008. With better luck and an improved swing, Cano should expect a rebound year in 2009 and get back on track to becoming a solid second baseman.
10/1/08
Cashman is a Genius
According to an interview on WFAN, Cashman plans for Joba to be a starter for the entire 2009 season.
Thank goodness.
Thank goodness.
9/30/08
The dumbest thing anyone has ever said. Ever.
Congratulations, Wallace Matthews.
There's only one thing keeping the 2008 Mets from being the biggest embarrassment in the long and proud history of New York City baseball.
The 2008 Yankees.
Of the 100+ plus years of professional baseball in New York, the 2008 Yankees are the biggest embarrassment. The. Biggest. Embarrassment. In. Over. 100+. Years.
The 2008 Yankees, who won 89 games in a division where FOUR OUT OF FIVE TEAMS won at least 86 games, are the biggest embarrassment in the long history of New York City baseball? REALLY? NOT the Mets? Choking away their postseason dreams on the last day of the season against a playing-for-nothing Marlins team two years in a row is NOT at least as embarrassing? Nor the 1962 Mets? You know, the team that lost more games in a single season than any other team has done before or since.
Wallace Matthews is the biggest embarrassment in the long and sorry history of New York City baseball coverage.
There's only one thing keeping the 2008 Mets from being the biggest embarrassment in the long and proud history of New York City baseball.
The 2008 Yankees.
Of the 100+ plus years of professional baseball in New York, the 2008 Yankees are the biggest embarrassment. The. Biggest. Embarrassment. In. Over. 100+. Years.
The 2008 Yankees, who won 89 games in a division where FOUR OUT OF FIVE TEAMS won at least 86 games, are the biggest embarrassment in the long history of New York City baseball? REALLY? NOT the Mets? Choking away their postseason dreams on the last day of the season against a playing-for-nothing Marlins team two years in a row is NOT at least as embarrassing? Nor the 1962 Mets? You know, the team that lost more games in a single season than any other team has done before or since.
Wallace Matthews is the biggest embarrassment in the long and sorry history of New York City baseball coverage.
Brian Cashman signs with Yankees for 3 more years
Yankees GM Brian Cashman is returning to the Yanks after signing a 3 year deal.
While Cashman has soured in the past year, he still is one of the better GM's in baseball (I mean, your GM could be Bill Smith or Omar Manaya). Unless the Yankees were to sign Kim Ng or magically lure Mark DePodesta to the job, then bringing back Cashman is smart. His vision for the farm system has been showing signs of success and should continue to grow under his power.
While Cashman has soured in the past year, he still is one of the better GM's in baseball (I mean, your GM could be Bill Smith or Omar Manaya). Unless the Yankees were to sign Kim Ng or magically lure Mark DePodesta to the job, then bringing back Cashman is smart. His vision for the farm system has been showing signs of success and should continue to grow under his power.
Ken Davidoff: Genius
Ken Davidoff should offer to GM the Yankees if Brian Cashman declines. His vision for 2009 is outstanding.
-Shake up the coaching staff. They can't get Larry Bowa back, but they need a third-base/infield coach who a) coaches third base well, and b) connects with Robinson Cano. How about elevating Class-A Tampa manager Luis Sojo to first-base/infield coach, moving first-base coach Tony Pena over to third and letting Bobby Meacham go?
Yeah, getting a coach for one specific player is the key to 2009. Not only that, but the Yankees should bring back Luis Sojo. Lets forget the fact he was arguably worse as the third base coach than Meacham. Sojo can cure Cano.
DON'T
-Sign CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett . It would be an upset if Sabathia didn't experience arm problems sometime over the next five years, and the same goes for Burnett, except his timetable is the next five weeks.
Genius. Lets not sign the best available pitcher this off season in Sabathia. That is the direction to take to get back on top. Never mind the fact that Josh Kalk of the Hardball Times concluded CC Sabathia's arm is fine.
Try to sign Casey Blake, not Mark Teixeira, to play first base.
Casey Blake>Mark Teixeira. Who cares if Casey Blake will be turning 35 and his .274/.345/.463/.808/109+ is inferior to the 28 year old Mark Teixeira's line of .308/.410/.552/.962/153+? Who cares if Teixeira is a Gold Glove 1b? Casey Blake is scrappy. Casey Blake is a winner.
So there you have it. The Yanks will be 2009 champs if they:
1. Find Cano a coach he clicks with
2. Don't sign CC Sabathia
3. Sign Casey Blake- NOT Mark Teixeira.
Common sense at its best.
-Shake up the coaching staff. They can't get Larry Bowa back, but they need a third-base/infield coach who a) coaches third base well, and b) connects with Robinson Cano. How about elevating Class-A Tampa manager Luis Sojo to first-base/infield coach, moving first-base coach Tony Pena over to third and letting Bobby Meacham go?
Yeah, getting a coach for one specific player is the key to 2009. Not only that, but the Yankees should bring back Luis Sojo. Lets forget the fact he was arguably worse as the third base coach than Meacham. Sojo can cure Cano.
DON'T
-Sign CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett . It would be an upset if Sabathia didn't experience arm problems sometime over the next five years, and the same goes for Burnett, except his timetable is the next five weeks.
Genius. Lets not sign the best available pitcher this off season in Sabathia. That is the direction to take to get back on top. Never mind the fact that Josh Kalk of the Hardball Times concluded CC Sabathia's arm is fine.
Try to sign Casey Blake, not Mark Teixeira, to play first base.
Casey Blake>Mark Teixeira. Who cares if Casey Blake will be turning 35 and his .274/.345/.463/.808/109+ is inferior to the 28 year old Mark Teixeira's line of .308/.410/.552/.962/153+? Who cares if Teixeira is a Gold Glove 1b? Casey Blake is scrappy. Casey Blake is a winner.
So there you have it. The Yanks will be 2009 champs if they:
1. Find Cano a coach he clicks with
2. Don't sign CC Sabathia
3. Sign Casey Blake- NOT Mark Teixeira.
Common sense at its best.
7/7/08
Joe Morgan Makes Sense
Only to show his love for K-Zone and defending home plate umps later.
Early in the game when discussing the Joba starter/reliever issue, Joe stated, "A great 8th inning guy is a luxury; starting pitching is a necessity."
There is no way Joe Morgan was smart enough to say that. No way.
Unfortunately he later defended Laz Diaz because of K-Zone confirmed some calls, even though it was one the worst called games this season.
Early in the game when discussing the Joba starter/reliever issue, Joe stated, "A great 8th inning guy is a luxury; starting pitching is a necessity."
There is no way Joe Morgan was smart enough to say that. No way.
Unfortunately he later defended Laz Diaz because of K-Zone confirmed some calls, even though it was one the worst called games this season.
6/29/08
Tim McCarver
During Fox's Saturday baseball game, Yanks v. Mets, McCarver left us with this gem, "Whether Delgado faces Rivera or Farnsworth depends on whether Beltran gets on."
This is what FOX is paying him for.
In other news, the Yanks received a miracle outing Friday night from Ponson who tossed a shutout in five inning, and then Pettitte out dueled Johan Santana, as the Yanks won 3-2. Yanks look to take the season series split with a win today.
This is what FOX is paying him for.
In other news, the Yanks received a miracle outing Friday night from Ponson who tossed a shutout in five inning, and then Pettitte out dueled Johan Santana, as the Yanks won 3-2. Yanks look to take the season series split with a win today.
6/25/08
Joba Chronicles Continued
6.2 innings tonight of shutout ball from Joba. 7 K's, 1 walk, and 6 hits. Velocity reached 97 as late as the 6th. Too bad he pitched 7 innings and can't pitch the all so important 8th inning.
6/23/08
Curt Schilling IS a Hall of Famer
Curt Schilling retired recently and the big debate is whether or not he is a Hall of Famer. The biggest argument being used against him by voters is wins. You heard that right. Wins.
Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer because:
3.46 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 4.38 K/BB, .246 BAA, 114 WARP3
Those are not necessarily "no doubt" Hall of Fame numbers, but they are good enough to get him in on his first few years of eligibility.
Oh, and in the post season he was even better. 2.23 ERA in 133 innings.
Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer because:
3.46 ERA, 127 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 4.38 K/BB, .246 BAA, 114 WARP3
Those are not necessarily "no doubt" Hall of Fame numbers, but they are good enough to get him in on his first few years of eligibility.
Oh, and in the post season he was even better. 2.23 ERA in 133 innings.
6/19/08
Joba Chronicles
Joba made his fourth start this afternoon, lasting 5 2/3, with 100 pitches. He was good except for 3 walks. The 2nd Inning should put the doubt that hes a starter to rest. Bloop Single, Bloop GR double down the 3rd base line, Walk to Clark. No Outs bases loaded. Blows away Hairston. 1 Out. 1-2 count to Greene, he throws a ball Molina should stop and they throw Gonzalez out at the plate on the WP. Next pitch unhittable slider. No runs. He rang up one hitter on a curve. 3 on Fastballs and 5 on the slider. If it werent for the 2nd inning when they blooped him to death and made him throw a ton of pitches, he gets through 6 easy. He was in command the whole time out. His last fastball in 6th was 97 on the gun, so he maintains velocity through 100 pitches. If he can cut out 1 or 2 walks, hes lights out.
Stats as a starter (with credit to Peter Abraham):
18.1 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 12 BB, 19 K, 2.45 ERA
Stats as a starter (with credit to Peter Abraham):
18.1 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 12 BB, 19 K, 2.45 ERA
6/17/08
Forza Italia!
Big win for the Azzurri against France. With Dutch help, Italy is moving on Euro 2008. Spain will be a tough task with Pirlo and Gattuso out, but the men in blue seemed rejuvenated today and hopefully the momentum carries into the next round.
6/16/08
Underrated Players
Today while out, a conversation broke out amongst who were the most underrated players in baseball history. When I got home, I investigated the matter further. Without further a due, here are several severely underrated players.
Johnny Mize, 1b- The Big Cat was a slugger for the St. Louis Cardinals from the 1930's-1950's. He finished with a line of .312/.397/.562/.959/158+ and a final EqA of .330. His best seasons were 1937-1940. Over that span in his early career, Mize received MVP votes each season.
1937: .364/.427/.595/1.022/172+ with 25 HR
1938: .337/.422/.614/1.036/175+ with 27 HR
1939: .349/.444/.628/1.070/178+ with 28 HR
1940: .314/.404/.636/1.040/176+ with 43 HR
Following that "peak" Mize still put up five seasons of an OPS+ greater than 150. Mize served in the US Army from '43-'45, losing what could have been the prime of his career. Is that the reasons he is oft forgotten? Maybe. But Mize was an all time player.
Roberto Alomar, 2b- Now he is a funny fellow, had several good years spread out, not one definite peak. I will do my best to select one and show his other good seasons/career.
His 1992 and 1993 seasons for Toronto were quite good.
1992: .310/.405/.427/.832/129+ with 49 SB at a 84% clip
1993: .326/.408/.492/.900/141+ with 55 SB at a 78% clip
His next city pit stop was Baltimore, where he had two more good seasons.
1996: .328/.411/.527/.938/136+ with 17 SB
1997: .333/.390/.500/.890/134+ with 9 SB
But his "peak" was his three years in Cleveland.
1999: .323/.422/.533/.955/139+ with 24 HR, 37 SB at a 86% clip
2000: .310/.378/.475/.853/114+ with 19 HR, 39 SB at a 90% clip
2001: .336/.415/.541/.956/150+ with 20 HR, 30 SB at a 83% clip
Average line: .323/.405/.921/134+ with 21 HR, 35 SB
His final career stats were:
Pretty great for a 2b right? Well, not only did he hit and run, but Alomar was a premium defender. He has won 10 GG awards, and he won a GG in all seasons pointed out but 1997.
Alomar cleared 30 Win Shares in a season 5 times, and led the league on 3 occasions. He hit .313 in the postseason (230 AB). Coming into 2004, he had 373 career Win Shares, an outstanding total.
Why has he not stood out more? Well, one reason people have not had the time to soak in greatness, since he retired this decade. Moreover, Alomar faded quickly, finishing with five sub par seasons, an image fresher in fans minds than his MVP caliber seasons. Roberto was also good everything- stealing, hitting, and defense- but never stood out.
Barry Larkin, SS- Larkin is the third greatest short stop of all time, second greatest if you discount A-Rod. Yet Larkin is often forgotten about and if remembered, cast aside when talking about all time greats. Barry was another middle infielder that could hit, field, and base run, all impressive for a SS. For his career, Larkin finished with a line of:
.295/.371/.444/.815/116+ with 379 SB at an 83% success rate, .291 EqA, and 939 BB to 817 K's. Those numbers are good, but when one considers it was done from a shortstop, it really stands out. Not only was his bat a bonus from a SS, but he was a quality defender, taking home three Gold Glove awards. His prime seasons were 1995-1998, with 1997 being cut short due to injury.
1995: .319/.394/.492/.886/133+ with 15 HR and 51 SB against 5 CS. Won the Gold Glove.
1996: .298/.410/.567/.977/154+ with 33 HR and 36 SB against 10 CS. Won the Gold Glove.
1998: .309/.397/.504/.901/134+ with 17 HR and 26 SB against 3 CS.
Larkin should be a HOF'er. And yes, he was better than Mr. Cal Ripken Jr.
Ralph Kiner, LF- Kiner is forgotten because he only played ten seasons, nine with 500+ AB's. Yet he was one of the greatest mashers of his generation, and surely would have hit 500-600 HR's had he been able to play into his thirty's. Kiner finished with the line of .279/.398/.548/.946/149+ with 369 HR's. But check out his three best seasons.
1947: 51 HR, .313/.417/.639/1.056/171+, 9.9 RC/G, .343 EqA
1949: 54 HR, .310/.432/.658/1.090/186+, 10.7 RC/G, .351 EqA
1951: 42 HR, .309/.452/.627/1.079/184+, 10.7 RC/G, .355 EqA
Average Line: 49 HR, .311/.434/.641/.1075/181+, 10.4 RC/G, .350 EqA
Simply amazing. Ted Williams created a listed using his secret formula, and concluded Ralph Kiner was the 20th best hitter of all time. Its a shame he does not receive that type of accolade.
Harry Heilman, RF- The man known as 'Slug' was one of the best sluggers in baseballs history, yet many people do not even recognize his name. He played for Detroit through the dead and live ball eras. His final career stats are just amazing. He hit .342/.410/.520/.930/148+ with 856 BB to 550 K. Heilman's best season came in 1923, at the age of 28. Heilman hit .403/.481/.632/1.113/194+ with 44 2b, 18 HR, and almost twice as many BB as K's.
Why was he not known? Maybe it was because he played long ago, but Heilman is someone who should be reverred as an all time great.
Addie Joss, SP- The reason Joss is forgotten is because he played in the dead ball and died early. But if not for the tragic death, he might be considered just as good as Christy Mathewson. In 2327 innings, Joss gave up 1888 hits, 19 HR, 364 BB, had a 1.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, and 0.968 WHIP.
He posted an ERA under 2.00 in five of his eight full seasons. He was the All-time career leader in WHIP with .9678. He had the Second best all-time ERA of 1.89. Joss Pitched a perfect game in 1908 and another no-hitter in 1910. Won 160 games in less that 9 full seasons. Would have had a longer career but illness cut his life short at 31. Think about that again. Finished his career with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.9678 WHIP! That coming over 2300 career innings.
Check out his peak years-
1906: 282 IP, 1.72 ERA, 220 H, 43 BB, 151 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP
1907: 338 IP, 279 H, 54 BB, 1.83 ERA, 137 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP
1908: 325 IP, 232 H, 30 BB, 1.16 ERA, 205 ERA+, 0.80 WHIP
1909: 242 IP, 198 H, 31 BB, 1.71 ERA, 149 ERA+, 0.94 WHIP
And oh yeah, in 1904 he also had a great season:
192 IP, 160 H, 30 BB, 1.59 ERA, 160 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP
Look at his 1908 season again. Over 300 IP yet just 30 BB and he kept a 1.16 ERA! It was so good that he was able to put a 205 ERA+ when the league ERA was 2.39, the best league ERA during his career.
Johnny Mize, 1b- The Big Cat was a slugger for the St. Louis Cardinals from the 1930's-1950's. He finished with a line of .312/.397/.562/.959/158+ and a final EqA of .330. His best seasons were 1937-1940. Over that span in his early career, Mize received MVP votes each season.
1937: .364/.427/.595/1.022/172+ with 25 HR
1938: .337/.422/.614/1.036/175+ with 27 HR
1939: .349/.444/.628/1.070/178+ with 28 HR
1940: .314/.404/.636/1.040/176+ with 43 HR
Following that "peak" Mize still put up five seasons of an OPS+ greater than 150. Mize served in the US Army from '43-'45, losing what could have been the prime of his career. Is that the reasons he is oft forgotten? Maybe. But Mize was an all time player.
Roberto Alomar, 2b- Now he is a funny fellow, had several good years spread out, not one definite peak. I will do my best to select one and show his other good seasons/career.
His 1992 and 1993 seasons for Toronto were quite good.
1992: .310/.405/.427/.832/129+ with 49 SB at a 84% clip
1993: .326/.408/.492/.900/141+ with 55 SB at a 78% clip
His next city pit stop was Baltimore, where he had two more good seasons.
1996: .328/.411/.527/.938/136+ with 17 SB
1997: .333/.390/.500/.890/134+ with 9 SB
But his "peak" was his three years in Cleveland.
1999: .323/.422/.533/.955/139+ with 24 HR, 37 SB at a 86% clip
2000: .310/.378/.475/.853/114+ with 19 HR, 39 SB at a 90% clip
2001: .336/.415/.541/.956/150+ with 20 HR, 30 SB at a 83% clip
Average line: .323/.405/.921/134+ with 21 HR, 35 SB
His final career stats were:
Pretty great for a 2b right? Well, not only did he hit and run, but Alomar was a premium defender. He has won 10 GG awards, and he won a GG in all seasons pointed out but 1997.
Alomar cleared 30 Win Shares in a season 5 times, and led the league on 3 occasions. He hit .313 in the postseason (230 AB). Coming into 2004, he had 373 career Win Shares, an outstanding total.
Why has he not stood out more? Well, one reason people have not had the time to soak in greatness, since he retired this decade. Moreover, Alomar faded quickly, finishing with five sub par seasons, an image fresher in fans minds than his MVP caliber seasons. Roberto was also good everything- stealing, hitting, and defense- but never stood out.
Barry Larkin, SS- Larkin is the third greatest short stop of all time, second greatest if you discount A-Rod. Yet Larkin is often forgotten about and if remembered, cast aside when talking about all time greats. Barry was another middle infielder that could hit, field, and base run, all impressive for a SS. For his career, Larkin finished with a line of:
.295/.371/.444/.815/116+ with 379 SB at an 83% success rate, .291 EqA, and 939 BB to 817 K's. Those numbers are good, but when one considers it was done from a shortstop, it really stands out. Not only was his bat a bonus from a SS, but he was a quality defender, taking home three Gold Glove awards. His prime seasons were 1995-1998, with 1997 being cut short due to injury.
1995: .319/.394/.492/.886/133+ with 15 HR and 51 SB against 5 CS. Won the Gold Glove.
1996: .298/.410/.567/.977/154+ with 33 HR and 36 SB against 10 CS. Won the Gold Glove.
1998: .309/.397/.504/.901/134+ with 17 HR and 26 SB against 3 CS.
Larkin should be a HOF'er. And yes, he was better than Mr. Cal Ripken Jr.
Ralph Kiner, LF- Kiner is forgotten because he only played ten seasons, nine with 500+ AB's. Yet he was one of the greatest mashers of his generation, and surely would have hit 500-600 HR's had he been able to play into his thirty's. Kiner finished with the line of .279/.398/.548/.946/149+ with 369 HR's. But check out his three best seasons.
1947: 51 HR, .313/.417/.639/1.056/171+, 9.9 RC/G, .343 EqA
1949: 54 HR, .310/.432/.658/1.090/186+, 10.7 RC/G, .351 EqA
1951: 42 HR, .309/.452/.627/1.079/184+, 10.7 RC/G, .355 EqA
Average Line: 49 HR, .311/.434/.641/.1075/181+, 10.4 RC/G, .350 EqA
Simply amazing. Ted Williams created a listed using his secret formula, and concluded Ralph Kiner was the 20th best hitter of all time. Its a shame he does not receive that type of accolade.
Harry Heilman, RF- The man known as 'Slug' was one of the best sluggers in baseballs history, yet many people do not even recognize his name. He played for Detroit through the dead and live ball eras. His final career stats are just amazing. He hit .342/.410/.520/.930/148+ with 856 BB to 550 K. Heilman's best season came in 1923, at the age of 28. Heilman hit .403/.481/.632/1.113/194+ with 44 2b, 18 HR, and almost twice as many BB as K's.
Why was he not known? Maybe it was because he played long ago, but Heilman is someone who should be reverred as an all time great.
Addie Joss, SP- The reason Joss is forgotten is because he played in the dead ball and died early. But if not for the tragic death, he might be considered just as good as Christy Mathewson. In 2327 innings, Joss gave up 1888 hits, 19 HR, 364 BB, had a 1.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, and 0.968 WHIP.
He posted an ERA under 2.00 in five of his eight full seasons. He was the All-time career leader in WHIP with .9678. He had the Second best all-time ERA of 1.89. Joss Pitched a perfect game in 1908 and another no-hitter in 1910. Won 160 games in less that 9 full seasons. Would have had a longer career but illness cut his life short at 31. Think about that again. Finished his career with a 1.89 ERA and a 0.9678 WHIP! That coming over 2300 career innings.
Check out his peak years-
1906: 282 IP, 1.72 ERA, 220 H, 43 BB, 151 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP
1907: 338 IP, 279 H, 54 BB, 1.83 ERA, 137 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP
1908: 325 IP, 232 H, 30 BB, 1.16 ERA, 205 ERA+, 0.80 WHIP
1909: 242 IP, 198 H, 31 BB, 1.71 ERA, 149 ERA+, 0.94 WHIP
And oh yeah, in 1904 he also had a great season:
192 IP, 160 H, 30 BB, 1.59 ERA, 160 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP
Look at his 1908 season again. Over 300 IP yet just 30 BB and he kept a 1.16 ERA! It was so good that he was able to put a 205 ERA+ when the league ERA was 2.39, the best league ERA during his career.
6/15/08
Babe Ruth or Ted Williams (or Ty Cobb)
Today on a sports forum, I came across a person who posed the question- who was the greatest hitter of all time? At first I thought the answer was unanimous, with Babe Ruth receiving the accolades. Well, it turns out Williams AND Cobb were better, because they were "pure" hitters.
First off, what the hell is a "pure" hitter? I can see the argument for those guys being more "well rounded", but "pure"? They also kept blabbering about how Cobb and Williams were better average hitters. That is nice, but average does not differentiate between a bloop or a blast. A chopper can be a hit, but a rocket could be caught.
So I went on to compare their offensive stats-
Ruth: .342/.474/.690/1.164/207+ with 12.6 RC/G, 714 HR, 5793 TB, .363 EqA
Williams: .344/.482/.634/1.116/191+ with 12 RC/G, 521 HR, 4884 TB, .359 EqA
Williams' line is nothing to scoff at as he is baseballs second best hitter, but I think anyone in their right mind would take Ruth. Williams does lead in OBP, but by only .08, whereas Ruth has a somewhat hefty lead in SLG, OPS, OPS+, HR, and TB. Ted did miss time due to war, but lets not forget Ruth also missed some years of hitting everyday, when he was a Boston pitcher.
The main argument against Ruth was his era. The live ball featured dominant offense because of the shortened strike zone. But to say Williams or Cobb was greater based on just that is ridiculous. Yes, Cobb played during the dead ball era when league SLG and OBP was .365 and .341. When Ruth played the league SLG and OBP was .400 and .353. Yet he slugged .290 points better than average and got on base .121 better than average. In comparison, Cobb only got on base .092 points better than average and slugged .147 better than average.
For those that really want to argue dead ball era, in 1919 when Ruth was still pitching, he managed over 400 AB's. He put up a 219 OPS+ season at age 24, where he hit 29 home runs. That same year, Cobb had a 166 OPS+ season with 1 HR- that after arguably two of his best years in 1917 and 1918. Oh, and the league ERA was better in 1919, then it was in 1911, when Cobb was 24.
So yeah, Ruth was the greatest hitter of all time.
First off, what the hell is a "pure" hitter? I can see the argument for those guys being more "well rounded", but "pure"? They also kept blabbering about how Cobb and Williams were better average hitters. That is nice, but average does not differentiate between a bloop or a blast. A chopper can be a hit, but a rocket could be caught.
So I went on to compare their offensive stats-
Ruth: .342/.474/.690/1.164/207+ with 12.6 RC/G, 714 HR, 5793 TB, .363 EqA
Williams: .344/.482/.634/1.116/191+ with 12 RC/G, 521 HR, 4884 TB, .359 EqA
Williams' line is nothing to scoff at as he is baseballs second best hitter, but I think anyone in their right mind would take Ruth. Williams does lead in OBP, but by only .08, whereas Ruth has a somewhat hefty lead in SLG, OPS, OPS+, HR, and TB. Ted did miss time due to war, but lets not forget Ruth also missed some years of hitting everyday, when he was a Boston pitcher.
The main argument against Ruth was his era. The live ball featured dominant offense because of the shortened strike zone. But to say Williams or Cobb was greater based on just that is ridiculous. Yes, Cobb played during the dead ball era when league SLG and OBP was .365 and .341. When Ruth played the league SLG and OBP was .400 and .353. Yet he slugged .290 points better than average and got on base .121 better than average. In comparison, Cobb only got on base .092 points better than average and slugged .147 better than average.
For those that really want to argue dead ball era, in 1919 when Ruth was still pitching, he managed over 400 AB's. He put up a 219 OPS+ season at age 24, where he hit 29 home runs. That same year, Cobb had a 166 OPS+ season with 1 HR- that after arguably two of his best years in 1917 and 1918. Oh, and the league ERA was better in 1919, then it was in 1911, when Cobb was 24.
So yeah, Ruth was the greatest hitter of all time.
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