Cameron, Marte, Mitre

• Mike Cameron's option was exercised by the Brewers today. This is bad news for the Yanks, who could have signed Cameron to one a year deal as an effective stop gap until Austin Jackson is ready in 2010.
• It looks like the Yankees are going to decline Marte's option. I am against this. By picking up his option, they would have an effective reliever for 2009 and take his picks after he walks then. Or, sign and trade Marte, where he could bring in a return more significant than draft picks.
  
• Today, the Yankees inked Sergio Mitre to a one year deal worth $1.25 mil with an option for 2010.
  
  He is currently rehabbing from TJS and won't be ready to pitch in live games until July or August of 2009. Previously, Mitre pitched for the Cubs and Marlins, and even pitched for Joe Girardi in 2006.
  
  Over the course of 310.7 innings spread over five seasons (78 G and 52 GS), Mitre has a 5.36 ERA, 81 ERA+, 1.545 WHIP, and 1.74 K/BB. Not so hot, right? Well, Sergio Mitre could turn out to be a good signing for the New York Yankees. To prove this, lets look deeper into the numbers posted by Mitre from 2004-2007.
  
  2004: 47 IP, 4.44 tRA, 108 tRA+, 2.2 pRAA
  2005: 43.3 IP, 4.16 tRA, 109 tRA+, 2.1 pRAA
  2006: 35 IP, 5.78 tRA, 86 tRA+, -2.8 pRAA
  2007: 149 IP, 4.78 tRA, 104 tRA+, 3.6 pRAA
  
  Outside 2006, Mitre has proven he can be an average starting pitcher, albeit in a small sample for a duration of five seasons. Along with this, Mitre has had some bad luck. His O-xO has been negative in every season and his xR-R has been negative in every season but run. Both suggest he has been plagued by bad defense or a bad park. In Chicago he pitched in a hitter friendly park and in Florida, he pitched in about a neutral park. A look at Team Defense Efficiency can confirm if he did in fact suffer from bad defenses. However, since he only passed 100 innings in a season during 2007, that is the only season will look at.
  
  2007: .661 (29/30)
  
  Ouch. That is bad. That horrendous TDE affirms the fact that Mitre's defense dependent stats suffered from a bad Marlin's defense.
  
  Now, not only does Mitre appear to be an average or serviceable pitcher, but he is also an appealing pitcher. Why? Because he is an extreme GB pitcher. Here are his numbers from 2004-2007.
  
  2004: 59.4 GB%, 2.38 GB/FB
  2005: 65.8 GB%, 2.96 GB/FB
  2006: 51.9 GB%, 1.86 GB/FB
  2007: 59.7 GB%, 2.61 GB/FB
  Total: 60.1 GB%, 2.53 GB/FB
  
  That is very good. If Mitre can get ground balls at this rate, with a Yankee infield helping him out, then Mitre could be a bargain.
  
  This is one of those low risk, high reward type moves that all GM's should be looking for. The main complaint is that the Yankees are giving this guy $1.25 mil when he won't even be ready to pitch until July. However, it is only paid if he reaches the majors. If he reaches the majors, then that means he has been good enough to earn it. Plus, it is prorated so if he joins the club mid-season, they owe him 500k. Mitre does have a ton of potential and upside, so its worth signing him should he somehow realize it. If he doesn't work out, then no money or roster spot is wasted.
  
  Mitre's upside is related not only to a nasty sinker, but a great minor league resume. In 589.2 minor league innings, he has a 3.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.03 K/BB.
  
  An idea with Mitre, besides providing pitching depth with upside, is to make him a productive reliever. As a reliever, his K rates have been up. So considering the surgery and his prior "failures" as a starter, turning him into a reliever could be a good idea.
  
  For 2009, I have a projection for Mitre of 30 IP between August and September, with a 5.00 ERA. That gives him a WAR of 0.23, and thus his value would be about $1.41 mil. Considering the Yanks probably won't even pay him $1 mil, this could be a steal.
  

Now, I am not trying to make Mitre sound like the savior. But it is just an example that low
risk high reward deals are the small, unnoticed deals can be good bargains for professional
teams.