2009 Rays

The Rays have arrived quite a bit ahead of schedule. This year was supposed to be a year of great improvement, but no one had them pegged as a legit playoff contender. Most people believed 2009-2011 would be their prime years to make a run at a championship. However, thanks to much improved defense and a bullpen that is actually serviceable (along with a decent offense), the Rays are in the World Series.


Predicting the World Series is often times a crap-shoot. Are the Rays the better team than the Phillies? Probably. The Phillies had a slightly higher run differential, but the Rays were playing in the hardest division in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus's "Secret Sauce," the Rays were the 6th best playoff team while the Phils were the 12th. (Secret Sauce takes the things that most strongly correlate to playoff success, starting pitching, defense, closer, and ranks teams based on these factors). All-in-all, this should be one of the most interesting World Series in recent memory.


However, I am intrigued by how stacked the Rays are in terms of young talent, especially starting pitchers. Next year, the team basically has four guaranteed starters. They are; Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price. That leaves 4 pitchers fighting for the 5th spot. They are; Andy Sonnanstine, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann.


Wade Davis

Davis had a 3.85 in 19 AA games this year and a 2.72 ERA in 9 AAA games this year. These numbers were supported by a 3.95 FIP. That means he got slightly lucky, but nothing substantial. He is looked at by many as the top Rays prospect outside of Price.


Jake McGee

McGee could make a case for being the top prospect in the organization. The lefty spent all of 2008 in AA and compiled a 3.94 ERA. This was his worst year out of his 3 total professional seasons, and most of this trouble can be chalked up to a diminished SO rate (just under 8 per 9 innings). If he could become the dominating strike out pitcher he was in the lower levels of the minor leagues, he could be a great #5 starter for the Rays.


Jeff Niemann

The 6' 9" Niemann was the Rays 1st pick in the 2004 draft. He has the experience edge over the younger Davis and McGee. In 2 full seasons at AAA, Niemann has posted ERAs in the upper 3's with good strikeout numbers and decent walk numbers. He was called up to the majors late this year and pitched 16 mediocre innings.


Andy Sonnanstine

Sonnanstine has a career 4.97 ERA, but his 4.05 FIP says he should be a lot better than that. He doesn't strike many people out, so the fact that the Rays have a great defense should benefit him more than others, especially because he has impeccable control.


Really, any of these four pitchers are amazing considering they are going to be the 5th starter for the Rays. If I had to guess, I would say Sonnanstine or Niemann start the season as the 5th starter while Davis and McGee start in AAA. How good is this team going to be next year? If it wasn't for the expected Yankees spending, I would say they would be the heavy favorites in the AL East.