...because this shaped up to be the best series since 2002 (and it only went 5 games).
Once again Madden waits too long to throw Price and it costs him the game and the World Series.
Congrats to the Phillies.
And here's to the 2009 World Champs: the New York Yankees
10/22/08
10/20/08
Yankees rumors
John Peretto:
Quote:
Perrotto expects a Jake Peavy deal to be done before the Winter Meetings, stating that the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers seem to be the leaders in the race right now. He notes that the Yankees will be willing to include Phil Hughes, while the Braves are willing to move Yunel Escobar.
Quote:
The Yankees are planning on using Joba Chamberlain in their rotation next year, but are not planning on settling for what they have. Perrotto states that the Yankees will "go all-in" on the free agent market, making aggressive offers to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Mark Teixeira.
Olney:
Quote:
The Yankees seem almost destined to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason, but while it's been suggested that Teixeira is seeking upwards of 10 years, $200MM, the Yankees may be looking to offer half of that, or "a deal in the range of 6 years, $18-20MM a year." Good news for the Orioles who look to be the biggest competitor for the Yankees in pursuing both Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.
The Yankees are gearing up to offer CC Sabathia "an offer that may dwarf those of other clubs, by a factor of 30 or 40 percent." Olney feels that may be a necessary surcharge to convince Sabathia to pitch in the Big Apple.
A rumor is a rumor, but it is good to see we are front runners for the top available players this off-season.
Also, congratulations to the Rays and Phillies on making the WS.
Quote:
Perrotto expects a Jake Peavy deal to be done before the Winter Meetings, stating that the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers seem to be the leaders in the race right now. He notes that the Yankees will be willing to include Phil Hughes, while the Braves are willing to move Yunel Escobar.
Quote:
The Yankees are planning on using Joba Chamberlain in their rotation next year, but are not planning on settling for what they have. Perrotto states that the Yankees will "go all-in" on the free agent market, making aggressive offers to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Mark Teixeira.
Olney:
Quote:
The Yankees seem almost destined to sign Mark Teixeira this offseason, but while it's been suggested that Teixeira is seeking upwards of 10 years, $200MM, the Yankees may be looking to offer half of that, or "a deal in the range of 6 years, $18-20MM a year." Good news for the Orioles who look to be the biggest competitor for the Yankees in pursuing both Teixeira and A.J. Burnett.
The Yankees are gearing up to offer CC Sabathia "an offer that may dwarf those of other clubs, by a factor of 30 or 40 percent." Olney feels that may be a necessary surcharge to convince Sabathia to pitch in the Big Apple.
A rumor is a rumor, but it is good to see we are front runners for the top available players this off-season.
Also, congratulations to the Rays and Phillies on making the WS.
2009 Rays
The Rays have arrived quite a bit ahead of schedule. This year was supposed to be a year of great improvement, but no one had them pegged as a legit playoff contender. Most people believed 2009-2011 would be their prime years to make a run at a championship. However, thanks to much improved defense and a bullpen that is actually serviceable (along with a decent offense), the Rays are in the World Series.
Predicting the World Series is often times a crap-shoot. Are the Rays the better team than the Phillies? Probably. The Phillies had a slightly higher run differential, but the Rays were playing in the hardest division in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus's "Secret Sauce," the Rays were the 6th best playoff team while the Phils were the 12th. (Secret Sauce takes the things that most strongly correlate to playoff success, starting pitching, defense, closer, and ranks teams based on these factors). All-in-all, this should be one of the most interesting World Series in recent memory.
However, I am intrigued by how stacked the Rays are in terms of young talent, especially starting pitchers. Next year, the team basically has four guaranteed starters. They are; Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price. That leaves 4 pitchers fighting for the 5th spot. They are; Andy Sonnanstine, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann.
Wade Davis
Davis had a 3.85 in 19 AA games this year and a 2.72 ERA in 9 AAA games this year. These numbers were supported by a 3.95 FIP. That means he got slightly lucky, but nothing substantial. He is looked at by many as the top Rays prospect outside of Price.
Jake McGee
McGee could make a case for being the top prospect in the organization. The lefty spent all of 2008 in AA and compiled a 3.94 ERA. This was his worst year out of his 3 total professional seasons, and most of this trouble can be chalked up to a diminished SO rate (just under 8 per 9 innings). If he could become the dominating strike out pitcher he was in the lower levels of the minor leagues, he could be a great #5 starter for the Rays.
Jeff Niemann
The 6' 9" Niemann was the Rays 1st pick in the 2004 draft. He has the experience edge over the younger Davis and McGee. In 2 full seasons at AAA, Niemann has posted ERAs in the upper 3's with good strikeout numbers and decent walk numbers. He was called up to the majors late this year and pitched 16 mediocre innings.
Andy Sonnanstine
Sonnanstine has a career 4.97 ERA, but his 4.05 FIP says he should be a lot better than that. He doesn't strike many people out, so the fact that the Rays have a great defense should benefit him more than others, especially because he has impeccable control.
Really, any of these four pitchers are amazing considering they are going to be the 5th starter for the Rays. If I had to guess, I would say Sonnanstine or Niemann start the season as the 5th starter while Davis and McGee start in AAA. How good is this team going to be next year? If it wasn't for the expected Yankees spending, I would say they would be the heavy favorites in the AL East.
Predicting the World Series is often times a crap-shoot. Are the Rays the better team than the Phillies? Probably. The Phillies had a slightly higher run differential, but the Rays were playing in the hardest division in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus's "Secret Sauce," the Rays were the 6th best playoff team while the Phils were the 12th. (Secret Sauce takes the things that most strongly correlate to playoff success, starting pitching, defense, closer, and ranks teams based on these factors). All-in-all, this should be one of the most interesting World Series in recent memory.
However, I am intrigued by how stacked the Rays are in terms of young talent, especially starting pitchers. Next year, the team basically has four guaranteed starters. They are; Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price. That leaves 4 pitchers fighting for the 5th spot. They are; Andy Sonnanstine, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann.
Wade Davis
Davis had a 3.85 in 19 AA games this year and a 2.72 ERA in 9 AAA games this year. These numbers were supported by a 3.95 FIP. That means he got slightly lucky, but nothing substantial. He is looked at by many as the top Rays prospect outside of Price.
Jake McGee
McGee could make a case for being the top prospect in the organization. The lefty spent all of 2008 in AA and compiled a 3.94 ERA. This was his worst year out of his 3 total professional seasons, and most of this trouble can be chalked up to a diminished SO rate (just under 8 per 9 innings). If he could become the dominating strike out pitcher he was in the lower levels of the minor leagues, he could be a great #5 starter for the Rays.
Jeff Niemann
The 6' 9" Niemann was the Rays 1st pick in the 2004 draft. He has the experience edge over the younger Davis and McGee. In 2 full seasons at AAA, Niemann has posted ERAs in the upper 3's with good strikeout numbers and decent walk numbers. He was called up to the majors late this year and pitched 16 mediocre innings.
Andy Sonnanstine
Sonnanstine has a career 4.97 ERA, but his 4.05 FIP says he should be a lot better than that. He doesn't strike many people out, so the fact that the Rays have a great defense should benefit him more than others, especially because he has impeccable control.
Really, any of these four pitchers are amazing considering they are going to be the 5th starter for the Rays. If I had to guess, I would say Sonnanstine or Niemann start the season as the 5th starter while Davis and McGee start in AAA. How good is this team going to be next year? If it wasn't for the expected Yankees spending, I would say they would be the heavy favorites in the AL East.
10/13/08
Some people should just quit life
From the ESPN playoff blog:
Quote:
If they lose, perhaps being down 3-1 is where the Red Sox most feel comfortable in ALCS play. They were there a year ago against Cleveland, and they were there in '04 against New York (after being down 3-0, of course).
Yeah, that makes sense. The Red Sox want to be down 3-1 because they are most comfortable there.
You can't make this stuff up.
Quote:
If they lose, perhaps being down 3-1 is where the Red Sox most feel comfortable in ALCS play. They were there a year ago against Cleveland, and they were there in '04 against New York (after being down 3-0, of course).
Yeah, that makes sense. The Red Sox want to be down 3-1 because they are most comfortable there.
You can't make this stuff up.
Tulowitzki=Rollins in '07
Okay, as the title states, Troy Tulowitzki was as good as Jimmy Rollins last year . That's right, the rookie that didn't even win rookie of the year was better than the MVP of the league (and SS Gold Glove winner) last year. How is this possible? Well for one, Rollins didn't really deserve the MVP. Wright, Holliday, or even Hanley Ramirez would have been the much better selection. Now back to the discussion at hand. I will first compare offensive statistics, followed by defensive statistics, and finally get to "all-in-one" stats that incorporate both.
In 2007, Jimmy Rollins posted the following stats:
Rollins' Batting Statistics -..296BA/.344OBP/.531SLG .292 EqA (Equivalent Average) 53 BRAR (Batting Runs Above Replacement)...(remember this number for later).
As you can see, Jimmy Rollins was very solid at the plate last year, but his numbers were slightly overrated. From a shortstop they were great, but that argument won't come into play here because Tulo played the same position. Now, the main flaw Jimmy Rollins has is that he doesn't walk that much. His BB% of 6.4 led to a OBP of .344 (which as many of you know, is the single most important non-advanced stat when judging a player). This means he made an out 66% of the time he came up to the plate (which led him to his league leading 504 outs. Now, he obviously made up for his lackluster on-base ability by slugging the hell out of the ball. He did this extremely well, and slugging is the 2nd most important basic statistic, but it doesn't exactly make up for his OBP 100%.
Now onto Troy Tulowitzki's 2007 offensive statistics. Tulo is not as good of a hitter as Rollins. It wasn't that close last year. I will post the stats anyway because we have to have a common ground of judging offense vs. defense.
Tulowitzki'sBatting Statistics -.291BA/.359OBP/.479SLG .280 EqA 30 BRAR (remember this number for later)
Now I'm not going to try to skew the stats to make Tulo look offensively superior to Rollins. I'm just going to say he had quite a bit better OBP (remember, the most important basic offensive statistic). Obviously Rollins' superiority on the base-paths and in the slugging department make up for it though.
Let's take a look at the defensive statistics now.
Tulowitzki's Fielding Statistics -.987F%(1st among SS), 5.39RF(1st), .866ZR(2nd), 87OOZ(1st), 50 FRAR (1st...remember this for later).
Now Tulo had a defensive season for the ages. The greatest fielding SS of all-time, Ozzie Smith, had only 3 seasons with a FRAR above 50. Only 3! Being a rookie makes this even more amazing. He made the highest percentage of balls he fielded (F%), he made the highest percentage of plays in his zone (ZR), he made the most plays out of his zone (OOZ), and he reached the most balls(RF) among shortstops.
Rollins' Fielding Statistics -..985F%(3rd), 4.41RF(13th), .824ZR(11th), 65OOZ(T-5th), 27FRAR (remember this for later).
Like the differences in batting, their is a huge difference in the two players' fielding stats as well. What I'm arguing is that the difference in fielding is greater than the difference of batting.
Tulowitzki's Combined Stats
WARP 9.0, WARP2 11.4, WARP3, 11.3, 25 Win Shares, .668 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
Rollin’s Combined Stats
WARP 8.9, WARP2 11.3, WARP3, 11.3, 28 Win Shares, .666 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
As you can see, the two players were almost completely identical last year. Their WARPs (Wins Above Replacement Player) are just about identical. This means that they were each roughly 11 wins better than a fringe AAA/MLB SS. Rollins has the slight edge in Win Shares (a total measure of the value of a player), but this can be attributed to him having more ABs. If you look at WSP, which is basically Win Shares presented as a rate stat, Tulo has the slight edge.
These two players were almost identical last year IMO. One was a world class slugger, while the other did the things that normally fly under the radar (got on base and played great defense). Eventually, one received the NL MVP award and NL SS Golden Glove, while the other didn’t even win rookie of the year. Despite the discrepancies in recognition, Tulo was Rollins’ equal last year.
In 2007, Jimmy Rollins posted the following stats:
Rollins' Batting Statistics -..296BA/.344OBP/.531SLG .292 EqA (Equivalent Average) 53 BRAR (Batting Runs Above Replacement)...(remember this number for later).
As you can see, Jimmy Rollins was very solid at the plate last year, but his numbers were slightly overrated. From a shortstop they were great, but that argument won't come into play here because Tulo played the same position. Now, the main flaw Jimmy Rollins has is that he doesn't walk that much. His BB% of 6.4 led to a OBP of .344 (which as many of you know, is the single most important non-advanced stat when judging a player). This means he made an out 66% of the time he came up to the plate (which led him to his league leading 504 outs. Now, he obviously made up for his lackluster on-base ability by slugging the hell out of the ball. He did this extremely well, and slugging is the 2nd most important basic statistic, but it doesn't exactly make up for his OBP 100%.
Now onto Troy Tulowitzki's 2007 offensive statistics. Tulo is not as good of a hitter as Rollins. It wasn't that close last year. I will post the stats anyway because we have to have a common ground of judging offense vs. defense.
Tulowitzki'sBatting Statistics -.291BA/.359OBP/.479SLG .280 EqA 30 BRAR (remember this number for later)
Now I'm not going to try to skew the stats to make Tulo look offensively superior to Rollins. I'm just going to say he had quite a bit better OBP (remember, the most important basic offensive statistic). Obviously Rollins' superiority on the base-paths and in the slugging department make up for it though.
Let's take a look at the defensive statistics now.
Tulowitzki's Fielding Statistics -.987F%(1st among SS), 5.39RF(1st), .866ZR(2nd), 87OOZ(1st), 50 FRAR (1st...remember this for later).
Now Tulo had a defensive season for the ages. The greatest fielding SS of all-time, Ozzie Smith, had only 3 seasons with a FRAR above 50. Only 3! Being a rookie makes this even more amazing. He made the highest percentage of balls he fielded (F%), he made the highest percentage of plays in his zone (ZR), he made the most plays out of his zone (OOZ), and he reached the most balls(RF) among shortstops.
Rollins' Fielding Statistics -..985F%(3rd), 4.41RF(13th), .824ZR(11th), 65OOZ(T-5th), 27FRAR (remember this for later).
Like the differences in batting, their is a huge difference in the two players' fielding stats as well. What I'm arguing is that the difference in fielding is greater than the difference of batting.
Tulowitzki's Combined Stats
WARP 9.0, WARP2 11.4, WARP3, 11.3, 25 Win Shares, .668 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
Rollin’s Combined Stats
WARP 8.9, WARP2 11.3, WARP3, 11.3, 28 Win Shares, .666 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR
As you can see, the two players were almost completely identical last year. Their WARPs (Wins Above Replacement Player) are just about identical. This means that they were each roughly 11 wins better than a fringe AAA/MLB SS. Rollins has the slight edge in Win Shares (a total measure of the value of a player), but this can be attributed to him having more ABs. If you look at WSP, which is basically Win Shares presented as a rate stat, Tulo has the slight edge.
These two players were almost identical last year IMO. One was a world class slugger, while the other did the things that normally fly under the radar (got on base and played great defense). Eventually, one received the NL MVP award and NL SS Golden Glove, while the other didn’t even win rookie of the year. Despite the discrepancies in recognition, Tulo was Rollins’ equal last year.
10/10/08
He just said whaaaaat...?
During Game 1 of the ALCS, Buck Martinez said the following about Dice-BB: "You don't luck your way into 18 wins"
What? Huh? Did he just...seriously say? Whah?
4.17 tRA, 4.03 FIP, 5.05 BB/9, and 1.64 K/BB say he did luck his way into 18 wins.
What? Huh? Did he just...seriously say? Whah?
4.17 tRA, 4.03 FIP, 5.05 BB/9, and 1.64 K/BB say he did luck his way into 18 wins.
10/6/08
2009 Free Agent Second Basemen
The 2009 MLB Free Agent market is going to be dominated by starting pitchers and outfielders. CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn headline a pretty talented group of players. One position that is bound to get overlooked is second base. There are the usual “scrappy,” “always getting their jersey dirty” players that litter the 2b free agent market year after year. Nick Punto, the epitome of “scrap” himself David Eckstein, and Mark Grudzielanek all fit this mold. Unfortunately, none of these guys are really good at baseball anymore. And when it comes down to it, there are really only two guys to oogle about when looking at free agent second baseman. These two men are, of course, Mark Ellis and Orlando Hudson.
Let’s start by looking at Mark Ellis. Ellis is a career .265/.337/.407. These are very average offensive numbers for a 2b (near replacement level in fact). However, Ellis happens to be the best or 2nd best fielding second baseman in the league. This year he had a FRAR of 25 (or about 2.5 wins). In ’07 he was even better with a FRAR of 45. That kind of defense alone could push many teams on the bubble into the playoffs, including my Cardinals. Ellis is also an animal when looking at Zone Rating. He lead all MLB second baseman this year with a .868 ZR. Last year he was even better (.887). With this kind of defensive production, he only needs to produce slightly above his career numbers to be in the second tier of MLB second baseman. In 2007, for instance, he was one of the best second basemen in the game. He posted a .276/.336/.441 line. This was a bit inflated by a .302 BABIP (career .293), but those kind of numbers (or close to them) are very doable.
This is not the best part about what Ellis will bring to his future employers. It is almost a guarantee that Ellis will be drastically underpaid next year. After posting a line of .233/.321/.373, teams might get the impression he is on the decline. However, Ellis was almost Cano-like with his luck. He had a .249 BABIP last year, nearly 50 points lower than his career numbers. With a decent LD% of 14.7%, we see that he should have hit nearly 40 points better (.267). If he would have hit .267 last year he would have been one of the best second baseman in the league. Now, however, a team can get top 6-10 second baseman production for cheap.
Orlando Hudson was having a career year before his season was ended prematurely after dislocating his wrist. His .817 OPS was the same as he had in ’07 (his previous career high). For his career he is a .282/.346/.433 hitter. He has been much better than this though since arriving at
When it is all said and done, I would expect both of these players to put up similar numbers in ’09. One will play gold glove defense while the other will “compete” for the Silver Slugger (Utley has it locked up for about the next 5 years). Both are just outside of their prime (Ellis 32, Hudson 31), so a 3-4 year contract makes decent sense. However, one will be slightly overpaid while the other will be underpaid. If your team is in need for a 2b this off-season, hope they sign Mark Ellis. If they don’t, Orlando Hudson will be pretty damn good as well.
10/5/08
Praise
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/10/05/sabathia/index.html?eref=T1
| Quote: |
| The Yankees, whose overall revenue will skyrocket to a sport-high $400 million-plus next year, are expected to make a big pitch for Sabathia, who said after the Brewers were eliminated with a 6-2 Phillies victory that he'd consider any team that shows interest this winter, including the Brewers, the Yankees or anyone else. Sabathia, 28, had only positive words for Milwaukee. "I'd be lying if I didn't say it was one of the better times in my life and my career,'' he said. "I enjoyed my time here and we accomplished a lot.'' He also complimented interim manager Dale Sveum, pitching coach Mike Maddux and many of his Brewers teammates. But Sabathia also said, "I'll play anywhere,'' and kept the Yankees in play, saying of New York, "I enjoy that city. They've got a brand new stadium. We'll have to see what happens.'' "'Coming to a new city showed me it's pretty much the same anywhere,'' he said. ... Sabathia took a swipe at the conventional wisdom that says he much preferred to go home to California to play. "All those who say I only want to go back to California to play, that's not true,'' Sabathia said. He said he loved batting but wouldn't go so far as to say that that preference would eliminate American League teams. "I'll play anywhere,'' he said. |
Robinson Cano: Looking back on 2008 and looking ahead to 2009
2008 was a 'pathetic' year for Robinson Cano. Entering 2008, many experts believed Cano was becoming the best second baseman in the AL, if he wasn't already. After a putrid April, he was unable to recover offensively and despite playing amazing defense in the first half, that deteriorated in the past two months as well. So what went wrong with Cano in 2008 and what can we expect in 2009?
At first glance, Cano's line looks horrible- .271/.305/.410/.715 with an 88 OPS+, .247 EqA, .324 wOBA*, and -8.2 bRAA. However, Cano performed better than his line suggests, especially since it was affected by his bad start in April. In 114 April PA's, he hit .151/.211/.236/.446. Ouch. From that point forward, however, Cano was much a better hitter. From May to the end of the season, Cano hit .297/.326/.448/.774 in 520 PA's, giving him an above league average line, before adjusting for position.
Cano also underwent some horrible luck this past season. His BABIP was .286, 37 points below his career BABIP. Moreover, despite his bad line, Cano had a 19.4 LD%, which was actually 2.5% better than his LD% in 2007. With a 19.4 LD% Cano's xBABIP was .314., meaning Cano should have had about 16 more hits on balls he put into play. Factoring in these 16 hits as singles, his expected line would be .298/.338/.437/.775. With those expected hits factored in, his line goes from below average, to above average, showing the extent of his bad luck. But that line assumes all 16 hits were singles. Here’s how non-out line drives have been distributed as far as types of hits over the last couple of seasons.
Another crazy part about Cano's season is that all his peripherals suggest he should have had a solid season. In 2008, Cano had the lowest K% and GB% of his career, along with the best FB% of his career. According to OPS-PrOPS, Cano was in the top 20 for biggest difference between actual OPS and projected OPS. Again, that just goes to show his immense bad luck and that he was not as bad as his numbers suggest.
Also, in the second half Cano hit .307/.333/.482/.815. Including his second half, Cano's 1992 PA sample size of solid offensive numbers speak more volume than his 370 PA sample size of his bad first half in 2008- a sample size which was influenced by bad luck. Therefore, Cano should be fine for a 2009 rebound, especially considering the changes he made to his swing at the end of September.
As the pictures show, Cano previously had an open stance and a lot of bat movement before the pitch. With an open stance, Cano would then have to close his stance and get his bat into the load position all before his swing. All that movement was becoming a problem. Much like a pitcher with an elaborate windup, all the movement was breeding inconsistency in his swing. With the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, Cano now has a near square stance, with his feet a little wider apart. The result is less movement prior to the pitch and throughout the swing- thus a more consistent, compact swing with no wasted motion. Kevin Long also plans to work with Cano this winter in the Dominican Republic, giving more hope that an improved swing will lead to improved offensive numbers in 2009.
Finally, Cano had an average to below average year defensively. His final ZR was .810. At the All-Star Break (89 games) his ZR was .865, good for second best in MLB after Mark Ellis and his RS was +8. However, from the break to 9/4 (48 games), his ZR was .692 and he was -8 RS. That is horrible. In fact, it was the worst stretch of defense from any 2b in a season with over 300 innings. After that putrid stretch, he had an .884 ZR for the rest of the season. Even though Cano played 111 games of +12 RS defense, that small 48 game sample size was bad enough that he still finished -4 RS for the season. His sample size of solid defense from the past couple seasons is larger than that 48 game stretch, so he should project as average to above average with the glove in 2009.
Overall, 2008 was a major disappointment for Robinson Cano. He was not as bad as his stats suggest, but his expected numbers were still below most predictions and expectations for 2008. With better luck and an improved swing, Cano should expect a rebound year in 2009 and get back on track to becoming a solid second baseman.
At first glance, Cano's line looks horrible- .271/.305/.410/.715 with an 88 OPS+, .247 EqA, .324 wOBA*, and -8.2 bRAA. However, Cano performed better than his line suggests, especially since it was affected by his bad start in April. In 114 April PA's, he hit .151/.211/.236/.446. Ouch. From that point forward, however, Cano was much a better hitter. From May to the end of the season, Cano hit .297/.326/.448/.774 in 520 PA's, giving him an above league average line, before adjusting for position.
Cano also underwent some horrible luck this past season. His BABIP was .286, 37 points below his career BABIP. Moreover, despite his bad line, Cano had a 19.4 LD%, which was actually 2.5% better than his LD% in 2007. With a 19.4 LD% Cano's xBABIP was .314., meaning Cano should have had about 16 more hits on balls he put into play. Factoring in these 16 hits as singles, his expected line would be .298/.338/.437/.775. With those expected hits factored in, his line goes from below average, to above average, showing the extent of his bad luck. But that line assumes all 16 hits were singles. Here’s how non-out line drives have been distributed as far as types of hits over the last couple of seasons.
1B 61.6%
2B 34.2%
3B 1.4%
HR 2.7%
Another crazy part about Cano's season is that all his peripherals suggest he should have had a solid season. In 2008, Cano had the lowest K% and GB% of his career, along with the best FB% of his career. According to OPS-PrOPS, Cano was in the top 20 for biggest difference between actual OPS and projected OPS. Again, that just goes to show his immense bad luck and that he was not as bad as his numbers suggest.
Also, in the second half Cano hit .307/.333/.482/.815. Including his second half, Cano's 1992 PA sample size of solid offensive numbers speak more volume than his 370 PA sample size of his bad first half in 2008- a sample size which was influenced by bad luck. Therefore, Cano should be fine for a 2009 rebound, especially considering the changes he made to his swing at the end of September.
As the pictures show, Cano previously had an open stance and a lot of bat movement before the pitch. With an open stance, Cano would then have to close his stance and get his bat into the load position all before his swing. All that movement was becoming a problem. Much like a pitcher with an elaborate windup, all the movement was breeding inconsistency in his swing. With the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, Cano now has a near square stance, with his feet a little wider apart. The result is less movement prior to the pitch and throughout the swing- thus a more consistent, compact swing with no wasted motion. Kevin Long also plans to work with Cano this winter in the Dominican Republic, giving more hope that an improved swing will lead to improved offensive numbers in 2009.
Finally, Cano had an average to below average year defensively. His final ZR was .810. At the All-Star Break (89 games) his ZR was .865, good for second best in MLB after Mark Ellis and his RS was +8. However, from the break to 9/4 (48 games), his ZR was .692 and he was -8 RS. That is horrible. In fact, it was the worst stretch of defense from any 2b in a season with over 300 innings. After that putrid stretch, he had an .884 ZR for the rest of the season. Even though Cano played 111 games of +12 RS defense, that small 48 game sample size was bad enough that he still finished -4 RS for the season. His sample size of solid defense from the past couple seasons is larger than that 48 game stretch, so he should project as average to above average with the glove in 2009.
Overall, 2008 was a major disappointment for Robinson Cano. He was not as bad as his stats suggest, but his expected numbers were still below most predictions and expectations for 2008. With better luck and an improved swing, Cano should expect a rebound year in 2009 and get back on track to becoming a solid second baseman.
10/1/08
Cashman is a Genius
According to an interview on WFAN, Cashman plans for Joba to be a starter for the entire 2009 season.
Thank goodness.
Thank goodness.
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