2009 Free Agent Second Basemen

The 2009 MLB Free Agent market is going to be dominated by starting pitchers and outfielders. CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn headline a pretty talented group of players. One position that is bound to get overlooked is second base. There are the usual “scrappy,” “always getting their jersey dirty” players that litter the 2b free agent market year after year. Nick Punto, the epitome of “scrap” himself David Eckstein, and Mark Grudzielanek all fit this mold. Unfortunately, none of these guys are really good at baseball anymore. And when it comes down to it, there are really only two guys to oogle about when looking at free agent second baseman. These two men are, of course, Mark Ellis and Orlando Hudson.

Let’s start by looking at Mark Ellis. Ellis is a career .265/.337/.407. These are very average offensive numbers for a 2b (near replacement level in fact). However, Ellis happens to be the best or 2^nd best fielding second baseman in the league. This year he had a FRAR of 25 (or about 2.5 wins). In ’07 he was even better with a FRAR of 45. That kind of defense alone could push many teams on the bubble into the playoffs, including my Cardinals. Ellis is also an animal when looking at Zone Rating. He lead all MLB second baseman this year with a .868 ZR. Last year he was even better (.887). With this kind of defensive production, he only needs to produce slightly above his career numbers to be in the second tier of MLB second baseman. In 2007, for instance, he was one of the best second basemen in the game. He posted a .276/.336/.441 line. This was a bit inflated by a .302 BABIP (career .293), but those kind of numbers (or close to them) are very doable.

This is not the best part about what Ellis will bring to his future employers. It is almost a guarantee that Ellis will be drastically underpaid next year. After posting a line of .233/.321/.373, teams might get the impression he is on the decline. However, Ellis was almost Cano-like with his luck. He had a .249 BABIP last year, nearly 50 points lower than his career numbers. With a decent LD% of 14.7%, we see that he should have hit nearly 40 points better (.267). If he would have hit .267 last year he would have been one of the best second baseman in the league. Now, however, a team can get top 6-10 second baseman production for cheap.

Orlando Hudson was having a career year before his season was ended prematurely after dislocating his wrist. His .817 OPS was the same as he had in ’07 (his previous career high). For his career he is a .282/.346/.433 hitter. He has been much better than this though since arriving at Arizona. This is no coincidence seeing as Chase Field was the 2^nd best hitters park in the league last year. In his 3 year run with Arizona, he has hit .315/.393/.509 at Chase. These are Utley/Kinsler numbers. However, in games away from Chase, Hudson hit .274/.339/.392. It is pretty clear we will see a regression from Hudson if he moves from Arizona. Hudson is also a mediocre fielder. He had a horrible ZR of .790 this year. His ’07 season was a good bit better, but it was still a very average .814.

When it is all said and done, I would expect both of these players to put up similar numbers in ’09. One will play gold glove defense while the other will “compete” for the Silver Slugger (Utley has it locked up for about the next 5 years). Both are just outside of their prime (Ellis 32, Hudson 31), so a 3-4 year contract makes decent sense. However, one will be slightly overpaid while the other will be underpaid. If your team is in need for a 2b this off-season, hope they sign Mark Ellis. If they don’t, Orlando Hudson will be pretty damn good as well.