At first glance, Cano's line looks horrible- .271/.305/.410/.715 with an 88 OPS+, .247 EqA, .324 wOBA*, and -8.2 bRAA. However, Cano performed better than his line suggests, especially since it was affected by his bad start in April. In 114 April PA's, he hit .151/.211/.236/.446. Ouch. From that point forward, however, Cano was much a better hitter. From May to the end of the season, Cano hit .297/.326/.448/.774 in 520 PA's, giving him an above league average line, before adjusting for position.
Cano also underwent some horrible luck this past season. His BABIP was .286, 37 points below his career BABIP. Moreover, despite his bad line, Cano had a 19.4 LD%, which was actually 2.5% better than his LD% in 2007. With a 19.4 LD% Cano's xBABIP was .314., meaning Cano should have had about 16 more hits on balls he put into play. Factoring in these 16 hits as singles, his expected line would be .298/.338/.437/.775. With those expected hits factored in, his line goes from below average, to above average, showing the extent of his bad luck. But that line assumes all 16 hits were singles. Here’s how non-out line drives have been distributed as far as types of hits over the last couple of seasons.
1B 61.6%
2B 34.2%
3B 1.4%
HR 2.7%
Another crazy part about Cano's season is that all his peripherals suggest he should have had a solid season. In 2008, Cano had the lowest K% and GB% of his career, along with the best FB% of his career. According to OPS-PrOPS, Cano was in the top 20 for biggest difference between actual OPS and projected OPS. Again, that just goes to show his immense bad luck and that he was not as bad as his numbers suggest.
Also, in the second half Cano hit .307/.333/.482/.815. Including his second half, Cano's 1992 PA sample size of solid offensive numbers speak more volume than his 370 PA sample size of his bad first half in 2008- a sample size which was influenced by bad luck. Therefore, Cano should be fine for a 2009 rebound, especially considering the changes he made to his swing at the end of September.
As the pictures show, Cano previously had an open stance and a lot of bat movement before the pitch. With an open stance, Cano would then have to close his stance and get his bat into the load position all before his swing. All that movement was becoming a problem. Much like a pitcher with an elaborate windup, all the movement was breeding inconsistency in his swing. With the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, Cano now has a near square stance, with his feet a little wider apart. The result is less movement prior to the pitch and throughout the swing- thus a more consistent, compact swing with no wasted motion. Kevin Long also plans to work with Cano this winter in the Dominican Republic, giving more hope that an improved swing will lead to improved offensive numbers in 2009.
Finally, Cano had an average to below average year defensively. His final ZR was .810. At the All-Star Break (89 games) his ZR was .865, good for second best in MLB after Mark Ellis and his RS was +8. However, from the break to 9/4 (48 games), his ZR was .692 and he was -8 RS. That is horrible. In fact, it was the worst stretch of defense from any 2b in a season with over 300 innings. After that putrid stretch, he had an .884 ZR for the rest of the season. Even though Cano played 111 games of +12 RS defense, that small 48 game sample size was bad enough that he still finished -4 RS for the season. His sample size of solid defense from the past couple seasons is larger than that 48 game stretch, so he should project as average to above average with the glove in 2009.
Overall, 2008 was a major disappointment for Robinson Cano. He was not as bad as his stats suggest, but his expected numbers were still below most predictions and expectations for 2008. With better luck and an improved swing, Cano should expect a rebound year in 2009 and get back on track to becoming a solid second baseman.
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