Tulowitzki=Rollins in '07

Okay, as the title states, Troy Tulowitzki was as good as Jimmy Rollins last year . That's right, the rookie that didn't even win rookie of the year was better than the MVP of the league (and SS Gold Glove winner) last year. How is this possible? Well for one, Rollins didn't really deserve the MVP. Wright, Holliday, or even Hanley Ramirez would have been the much better selection. Now back to the discussion at hand. I will first compare offensive statistics, followed by defensive statistics, and finally get to "all-in-one" stats that incorporate both.

In 2007, Jimmy Rollins posted the following stats:
Rollins' Batting Statistics -..296BA/.344OBP/.531SLG .292 EqA (Equivalent Average) 53 BRAR (Batting Runs Above Replacement)...(remember this number for later).

As you can see, Jimmy Rollins was very solid at the plate last year, but his numbers were slightly overrated. From a shortstop they were great, but that argument won't come into play here because Tulo played the same position. Now, the main flaw Jimmy Rollins has is that he doesn't walk that much. His BB% of 6.4 led to a OBP of .344 (which as many of you know, is the single most important non-advanced stat when judging a player). This means he made an out 66% of the time he came up to the plate (which led him to his league leading 504 outs. Now, he obviously made up for his lackluster on-base ability by slugging the hell out of the ball. He did this extremely well, and slugging is the 2nd most important basic statistic, but it doesn't exactly make up for his OBP 100%.

Now onto Troy Tulowitzki's 2007 offensive statistics. Tulo is not as good of a hitter as Rollins. It wasn't that close last year. I will post the stats anyway because we have to have a common ground of judging offense vs. defense.

Tulowitzki'sBatting Statistics -.291BA/.359OBP/.479SLG .280 EqA 30 BRAR (remember this number for later)

Now I'm not going to try to skew the stats to make Tulo look offensively superior to Rollins. I'm just going to say he had quite a bit better OBP (remember, the most important basic offensive statistic). Obviously Rollins' superiority on the base-paths and in the slugging department make up for it though.

Let's take a look at the defensive statistics now.

Tulowitzki's Fielding Statistics -.987F%(1st among SS), 5.39RF(1st), .866ZR(2nd), 87OOZ(1st), 50 FRAR (1st...remember this for later).

Now Tulo had a defensive season for the ages. The greatest fielding SS of all-time, Ozzie Smith, had only 3 seasons with a FRAR above 50. Only 3! Being a rookie makes this even more amazing. He made the highest percentage of balls he fielded (F%), he made the highest percentage of plays in his zone (ZR), he made the most plays out of his zone (OOZ), and he reached the most balls(RF) among shortstops.

Rollins' Fielding Statistics -..985F%(3rd), 4.41RF(13th), .824ZR(11th), 65OOZ(T-5th), 27FRAR (remember this for later).

Like the differences in batting, their is a huge difference in the two players' fielding stats as well. What I'm arguing is that the difference in fielding is greater than the difference of batting.

Tulowitzki's Combined Stats

WARP 9.0, WARP2 11.4, WARP3, 11.3, 25 Win Shares, .668 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR

Rollin’s Combined Stats

WARP 8.9, WARP2 11.3, WARP3, 11.3, 28 Win Shares, .666 WSP, 80 BRAR+FRAR

As you can see, the two players were almost completely identical last year. Their WARPs (Wins Above Replacement Player) are just about identical. This means that they were each roughly 11 wins better than a fringe AAA/MLB SS. Rollins has the slight edge in Win Shares (a total measure of the value of a player), but this can be attributed to him having more ABs. If you look at WSP, which is basically Win Shares presented as a rate stat, Tulo has the slight edge.

These two players were almost identical last year IMO. One was a world class slugger, while the other did the things that normally fly under the radar (got on base and played great defense). Eventually, one received the NL MVP award and NL SS Golden Glove, while the other didn’t even win rookie of the year. Despite the discrepancies in recognition, Tulo was Rollins’ equal last year.