Jeremy Bleich

In the Hawaiian League:

30.2 iIP, 7 ER, 24 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 31 K. 1.36 GO/AO

And in his last four starts:

24.2 IP, 28 K, 1 BB

Yeah.

John Manuel taken to school

By another anonymous forum poster:

john manuel wrote:

I know the Twins throw more fastballs with those two guys [Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey] in particular being fastball guys, whereas Hughes and Joba both have plus breaking balls.

Career MLB totals - % of fastballs thrown

Slowey - 66%
Hughes - 64.9%
Chamberlain - 64.8%%
Blackburn - 49.4%

Ah, gotta love writers with a broad audience who do zero research.

BA: Top 10 Yankee prospects

Baseball America ranked the Yankees top 10 prospects after the 2008 season:

1. Austin Jackson, of- Best Defensive Outfielder
2. Jesus Montero, c- Best Power Hitter
3. Andrew Brackman, rhp- Best Fastball
4. Austin Romine, c
5. Dellin Betances, rhp
6. Zach McAllister, rhp- Best Control
7. Alfredo Aceves, rhp
8. Phil Coke, lhp
9. Mark Melancon, rhp
10. Bradley Suttle, 3b- Best Hitter for Average

Overall, the list seems pretty weak. Melancon is a better talent than Coke or Aceves, and should be ranked that way. #4 for Romine seems generous and the same goes for Brackman at #3, even if his talent is worthy of that spot. McCallister should be higher than #6, after posting a 128 tRA+ in Charleston and a 130 tRA+ in Tampa. Not to mention he had an outstanding 5.48 K/BB ratio. And even though Suttle had a decent year in Charleston, he did so as a 23 year old.

Now, the Yankees system is still solid with several amazingly high ceiling players. But the BA top 10 isn't the most lavish top 10. That can be attributed to a couple graduates from the list, such as Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.

One complaint though about farm systems. So I will let an anonymous forum person sum up my thoughts:

Also, take a look at the Red Sox’s top ten, whose farm system is supposedly leaps and bounds better than whatever the Yankees have to offer.

Nick Hagadone is number 3. He’s going to be 23 on the first day of 2009, and has pitched a grand total of 35 innings of professional baseball.

Daniel Bard, the man with a 99mph fastball and nothing else, is number 4.

And yet, the Red Sox are baseball’s model franchise and the Yankees are nothing but dirt beneath their feet.

AL Rookie of Year

Longoria - 140 (34.7 VORP)
Ramirez - 59 (20.7 VORP)
Ellsbury - 26 (17.8 VORP)
.....
Joba - 1 (32.3 VORP)

This is just one stat, but it goes to show how stupid the voters are. Until he was hurt, I would have had no problem giving the award to Joba. Even after the injury, he was still better than Ramirez and obviously way better than Chief Runs Fast. I mean, Ellsbury in third place is bad enough.

Dumbing down America, by Wallace Matthews

You will not read a dumber article this winter.

Keeping Joba in the bullpen as Rivera's setup man is the way the Yankees can re-establish that kind of late-game dominance... That should be the Yankees' objective with Joba, turning him into Mo's understudy with the aim of becoming Mo's replacement. That will win them a lot more games than Ramirez's bat or his flaky personality.

Um, whoa. Wallace believes the Yanks don't need CC, Tex, Manny, or any other free agent. What they need is Joba to pitch 60 innings a season. I don't know what's worse-the fact that he is still harping on this or the fact that Joba was actually better as a starter than a reliever in 2008, and yet his solution is to put him in the pen.

Going off VORP, Manny was worth about 5 wins last season. Mariano, in arguably the best season of his career, was worth about 3.5 wins. So yeah, I'm sure making Joba face less batters over the course of a season will win more games than the bat of Manny or Teixeira.

From people like Matthews who want to dominate late innings, I ask: how are we going to get there? Yes, it's nice that our 8th and 9th inning guys are good pitchers. But what's the point if we are consistently losing? If Wallace was in charge, his rotation as of today is Wang and that's it. But since he doesn't want a free agent or Joba, we can pencil in Wang, Hughes, Aceves, Kennedy, whoever. That sounds like a winning rotation to me!

It's called shortening the game, and the Yankees used to do it better than anyone.

It's called stupidity, and Wallace Matthews does it better than anyone.

LA Dodgers: Trying to miss the playoffs

Quote: According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, some Dodger officials have spread the word that Russell Martin will either be traded or moved to third base.

Between Colletti, McCourt, and Torre, I feel bad for Dodgers. The Dodgers want to move him because of a perceived attitude problem and a down year.

1. This is from the team that signed Kent and traded for Manny
2. Martin is a 25 year old, cost-controlled catcher who in the past three seasons has put up a wOBA* of .349, .370, and .353 with above average defense. Martin was 5th among MLB catchers in 2008 wOBA*. I guess those numbers, coming from a young catcher, are just not good enough for Colletti.

The thing is, it seems as if the Dodgers have really soured on him. I know the Yanks are not linked to him in a trade and I doubt they show interest, but if I was Cashman, I'd be on the phone with LA right now.

Cameron, Marte, Mitre

• Mike Cameron's option was exercised by the Brewers today. This is bad news for the Yanks, who could have signed Cameron to one a year deal as an effective stop gap until Austin Jackson is ready in 2010.
• It looks like the Yankees are going to decline Marte's option. I am against this. By picking up his option, they would have an effective reliever for 2009 and take his picks after he walks then. Or, sign and trade Marte, where he could bring in a return more significant than draft picks.
  
• Today, the Yankees inked Sergio Mitre to a one year deal worth $1.25 mil with an option for 2010.
  
  He is currently rehabbing from TJS and won't be ready to pitch in live games until July or August of 2009. Previously, Mitre pitched for the Cubs and Marlins, and even pitched for Joe Girardi in 2006.
  
  Over the course of 310.7 innings spread over five seasons (78 G and 52 GS), Mitre has a 5.36 ERA, 81 ERA+, 1.545 WHIP, and 1.74 K/BB. Not so hot, right? Well, Sergio Mitre could turn out to be a good signing for the New York Yankees. To prove this, lets look deeper into the numbers posted by Mitre from 2004-2007.
  
  2004: 47 IP, 4.44 tRA, 108 tRA+, 2.2 pRAA
  2005: 43.3 IP, 4.16 tRA, 109 tRA+, 2.1 pRAA
  2006: 35 IP, 5.78 tRA, 86 tRA+, -2.8 pRAA
  2007: 149 IP, 4.78 tRA, 104 tRA+, 3.6 pRAA
  
  Outside 2006, Mitre has proven he can be an average starting pitcher, albeit in a small sample for a duration of five seasons. Along with this, Mitre has had some bad luck. His O-xO has been negative in every season and his xR-R has been negative in every season but run. Both suggest he has been plagued by bad defense or a bad park. In Chicago he pitched in a hitter friendly park and in Florida, he pitched in about a neutral park. A look at Team Defense Efficiency can confirm if he did in fact suffer from bad defenses. However, since he only passed 100 innings in a season during 2007, that is the only season will look at.
  
  2007: .661 (29/30)
  
  Ouch. That is bad. That horrendous TDE affirms the fact that Mitre's defense dependent stats suffered from a bad Marlin's defense.
  
  Now, not only does Mitre appear to be an average or serviceable pitcher, but he is also an appealing pitcher. Why? Because he is an extreme GB pitcher. Here are his numbers from 2004-2007.
  
  2004: 59.4 GB%, 2.38 GB/FB
  2005: 65.8 GB%, 2.96 GB/FB
  2006: 51.9 GB%, 1.86 GB/FB
  2007: 59.7 GB%, 2.61 GB/FB
  Total: 60.1 GB%, 2.53 GB/FB
  
  That is very good. If Mitre can get ground balls at this rate, with a Yankee infield helping him out, then Mitre could be a bargain.
  
  This is one of those low risk, high reward type moves that all GM's should be looking for. The main complaint is that the Yankees are giving this guy $1.25 mil when he won't even be ready to pitch until July. However, it is only paid if he reaches the majors. If he reaches the majors, then that means he has been good enough to earn it. Plus, it is prorated so if he joins the club mid-season, they owe him 500k. Mitre does have a ton of potential and upside, so its worth signing him should he somehow realize it. If he doesn't work out, then no money or roster spot is wasted.
  
  Mitre's upside is related not only to a nasty sinker, but a great minor league resume. In 589.2 minor league innings, he has a 3.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.03 K/BB.
  
  An idea with Mitre, besides providing pitching depth with upside, is to make him a productive reliever. As a reliever, his K rates have been up. So considering the surgery and his prior "failures" as a starter, turning him into a reliever could be a good idea.
  
  For 2009, I have a projection for Mitre of 30 IP between August and September, with a 5.00 ERA. That gives him a WAR of 0.23, and thus his value would be about $1.41 mil. Considering the Yanks probably won't even pay him $1 mil, this could be a steal.
  

Now, I am not trying to make Mitre sound like the savior. But it is just an example that low
risk high reward deals are the small, unnoticed deals can be good bargains for professional
teams.