2009 Free Agent Second Basemen

The 2009 MLB Free Agent market is going to be dominated by starting pitchers and outfielders. CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn headline a pretty talented group of players. One position that is bound to get overlooked is second base. There are the usual “scrappy,” “always getting their jersey dirty” players that litter the 2b free agent market year after year. Nick Punto, the epitome of “scrap” himself David Eckstein, and Mark Grudzielanek all fit this mold. Unfortunately, none of these guys are really good at baseball anymore. And when it comes down to it, there are really only two guys to oogle about when looking at free agent second baseman. These two men are, of course, Mark Ellis and Orlando Hudson.

Let’s start by looking at Mark Ellis. Ellis is a career .265/.337/.407. These are very average offensive numbers for a 2b (near replacement level in fact). However, Ellis happens to be the best or 2^nd best fielding second baseman in the league. This year he had a FRAR of 25 (or about 2.5 wins). In ’07 he was even better with a FRAR of 45. That kind of defense alone could push many teams on the bubble into the playoffs, including my Cardinals. Ellis is also an animal when looking at Zone Rating. He lead all MLB second baseman this year with a .868 ZR. Last year he was even better (.887). With this kind of defensive production, he only needs to produce slightly above his career numbers to be in the second tier of MLB second baseman. In 2007, for instance, he was one of the best second basemen in the game. He posted a .276/.336/.441 line. This was a bit inflated by a .302 BABIP (career .293), but those kind of numbers (or close to them) are very doable.

This is not the best part about what Ellis will bring to his future employers. It is almost a guarantee that Ellis will be drastically underpaid next year. After posting a line of .233/.321/.373, teams might get the impression he is on the decline. However, Ellis was almost Cano-like with his luck. He had a .249 BABIP last year, nearly 50 points lower than his career numbers. With a decent LD% of 14.7%, we see that he should have hit nearly 40 points better (.267). If he would have hit .267 last year he would have been one of the best second baseman in the league. Now, however, a team can get top 6-10 second baseman production for cheap.

Orlando Hudson was having a career year before his season was ended prematurely after dislocating his wrist. His .817 OPS was the same as he had in ’07 (his previous career high). For his career he is a .282/.346/.433 hitter. He has been much better than this though since arriving at Arizona. This is no coincidence seeing as Chase Field was the 2^nd best hitters park in the league last year. In his 3 year run with Arizona, he has hit .315/.393/.509 at Chase. These are Utley/Kinsler numbers. However, in games away from Chase, Hudson hit .274/.339/.392. It is pretty clear we will see a regression from Hudson if he moves from Arizona. Hudson is also a mediocre fielder. He had a horrible ZR of .790 this year. His ’07 season was a good bit better, but it was still a very average .814.

When it is all said and done, I would expect both of these players to put up similar numbers in ’09. One will play gold glove defense while the other will “compete” for the Silver Slugger (Utley has it locked up for about the next 5 years). Both are just outside of their prime (Ellis 32, Hudson 31), so a 3-4 year contract makes decent sense. However, one will be slightly overpaid while the other will be underpaid. If your team is in need for a 2b this off-season, hope they sign Mark Ellis. If they don’t, Orlando Hudson will be pretty damn good as well.

Praise

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/10/05/sabathia/index.html?eref=T1

Quote:

The Yankees, whose overall revenue will skyrocket to a sport-high $400 million-plus next year, are expected to make a big pitch for Sabathia, who said after the Brewers were eliminated with a 6-2 Phillies victory that he'd consider any team that shows interest this winter, including the Brewers, the Yankees or anyone else. Sabathia, 28, had only positive words for Milwaukee. "I'd be lying if I didn't say it was one of the better times in my life and my career,'' he said. "I enjoyed my time here and we accomplished a lot.'' He also complimented interim manager Dale Sveum, pitching coach Mike Maddux and many of his Brewers teammates. But Sabathia also said, "I'll play anywhere,'' and kept the Yankees in play, saying of New York, "I enjoy that city. They've got a brand new stadium. We'll have to see what happens.'' "'Coming to a new city showed me it's pretty much the same anywhere,'' he said. ... Sabathia took a swipe at the conventional wisdom that says he much preferred to go home to California to play. "All those who say I only want to go back to California to play, that's not true,'' Sabathia said. He said he loved batting but wouldn't go so far as to say that that preference would eliminate American League teams. "I'll play anywhere,'' he said.

Robinson Cano: Looking back on 2008 and looking ahead to 2009

2008 was a 'pathetic' year for Robinson Cano. Entering 2008, many experts believed Cano was becoming the best second baseman in the AL, if he wasn't already. After a putrid April, he was unable to recover offensively and despite playing amazing defense in the first half, that deteriorated in the past two months as well. So what went wrong with Cano in 2008 and what can we expect in 2009?

At first glance, Cano's line looks horrible- .271/.305/.410/.715 with an 88 OPS+, .247 EqA, .324 wOBA*, and -8.2 bRAA. However, Cano performed better than his line suggests, especially since it was affected by his bad start in April. In 114 April PA's, he hit .151/.211/.236/.446. Ouch. From that point forward, however, Cano was much a better hitter. From May to the end of the season, Cano hit .297/.326/.448/.774 in 520 PA's, giving him an above league average line, before adjusting for position.

Cano also underwent some horrible luck this past season. His BABIP was .286, 37 points below his career BABIP. Moreover, despite his bad line, Cano had a 19.4 LD%, which was actually 2.5% better than his LD% in 2007. With a 19.4 LD% Cano's xBABIP was .314., meaning Cano should have had about 16 more hits on balls he put into play. Factoring in these 16 hits as singles, his expected line would be .298/.338/.437/.775. With those expected hits factored in, his line goes from below average, to above average, showing the extent of his bad luck. But that line assumes all 16 hits were singles. Here’s how non-out line drives have been distributed as far as types of hits over the last couple of seasons.

1B 61.6%
2B 34.2%
3B 1.4%
HR 2.7%

Using that, six of his hits should be doubles, with the other ten being singles. His xSLG would then be .447, giving him an xOPS of .785.

Another crazy part about Cano's season is that all his peripherals suggest he should have had a solid season. In 2008, Cano had the lowest K% and GB% of his career, along with the best FB% of his career. According to OPS-PrOPS, Cano was in the top 20 for biggest difference between actual OPS and projected OPS. Again, that just goes to show his immense bad luck and that he was not as bad as his numbers suggest.

Also, in the second half Cano hit .307/.333/.482/.815. Including his second half, Cano's 1992 PA sample size of solid offensive numbers speak more volume than his 370 PA sample size of his bad first half in 2008- a sample size which was influenced by bad luck. Therefore, Cano should be fine for a 2009 rebound, especially considering the changes he made to his swing at the end of September.

As the pictures show, Cano previously had an open stance and a lot of bat movement before the pitch. With an open stance, Cano would then have to close his stance and get his bat into the load position all before his swing. All that movement was becoming a problem. Much like a pitcher with an elaborate windup, all the movement was breeding inconsistency in his swing. With the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, Cano now has a near square stance, with his feet a little wider apart. The result is less movement prior to the pitch and throughout the swing- thus a more consistent, compact swing with no wasted motion. Kevin Long also plans to work with Cano this winter in the Dominican Republic, giving more hope that an improved swing will lead to improved offensive numbers in 2009.

Finally, Cano had an average to below average year defensively. His final ZR was .810. At the All-Star Break (89 games) his ZR was .865, good for second best in MLB after Mark Ellis and his RS was +8. However, from the break to 9/4 (48 games), his ZR was .692 and he was -8 RS. That is horrible. In fact, it was the worst stretch of defense from any 2b in a season with over 300 innings. After that putrid stretch, he had an .884 ZR for the rest of the season. Even though Cano played 111 games of +12 RS defense, that small 48 game sample size was bad enough that he still finished -4 RS for the season. His sample size of solid defense from the past couple seasons is larger than that 48 game stretch, so he should project as average to above average with the glove in 2009.

Overall, 2008 was a major disappointment for Robinson Cano. He was not as bad as his stats suggest, but his expected numbers were still below most predictions and expectations for 2008. With better luck and an improved swing, Cano should expect a rebound year in 2009 and get back on track to becoming a solid second baseman.

Cashman is a Genius

According to an interview on WFAN, Cashman plans for Joba to be a starter for the entire 2009 season.

Thank goodness.

The dumbest thing anyone has ever said. Ever.

Congratulations, Wallace Matthews.

There's only one thing keeping the 2008 Mets from being the biggest embarrassment in the long and proud history of New York City baseball.

The 2008 Yankees.

Of the 100+ plus years of professional baseball in New York, the 2008 Yankees are the biggest embarrassment. The. Biggest. Embarrassment. In. Over. 100+. Years.

The 2008 Yankees, who won 89 games in a division where FOUR OUT OF FIVE TEAMS won at least 86 games, are the biggest embarrassment in the long history of New York City baseball? REALLY? NOT the Mets? Choking away their postseason dreams on the last day of the season against a playing-for-nothing Marlins team two years in a row is NOT at least as embarrassing? Nor the 1962 Mets? You know, the team that lost more games in a single season than any other team has done before or since.

Wallace Matthews is the biggest embarrassment in the long and sorry history of New York City baseball coverage.

Brian Cashman signs with Yankees for 3 more years

Yankees GM Brian Cashman is returning to the Yanks after signing a 3 year deal.

While Cashman has soured in the past year, he still is one of the better GM's in baseball (I mean, your GM could be Bill Smith or Omar Manaya). Unless the Yankees were to sign Kim Ng or magically lure Mark DePodesta to the job, then bringing back Cashman is smart. His vision for the farm system has been showing signs of success and should continue to grow under his power.

Ken Davidoff: Genius

Ken Davidoff should offer to GM the Yankees if Brian Cashman declines. His vision for 2009 is outstanding.

-Shake up the coaching staff. They can't get Larry Bowa back, but they need a third-base/infield coach who a) coaches third base well, and b) connects with Robinson Cano. How about elevating Class-A Tampa manager Luis Sojo to first-base/infield coach, moving first-base coach Tony Pena over to third and letting Bobby Meacham go?

Yeah, getting a coach for one specific player is the key to 2009. Not only that, but the Yankees should bring back Luis Sojo. Lets forget the fact he was arguably worse as the third base coach than Meacham. Sojo can cure Cano.

DON'T

-Sign CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett . It would be an upset if Sabathia didn't experience arm problems sometime over the next five years, and the same goes for Burnett, except his timetable is the next five weeks.

Genius. Lets not sign the best available pitcher this off season in Sabathia. That is the direction to take to get back on top. Never mind the fact that Josh Kalk of the Hardball Times concluded CC Sabathia's arm is fine.

Try to sign Casey Blake, not Mark Teixeira, to play first base.

Casey Blake>Mark Teixeira. Who cares if Casey Blake will be turning 35 and his .274/.345/.463/.808/109+ is inferior to the 28 year old Mark Teixeira's line of .308/.410/.552/.962/153+? Who cares if Teixeira is a Gold Glove 1b? Casey Blake is scrappy. Casey Blake is a winner.

So there you have it. The Yanks will be 2009 champs if they:

1. Find Cano a coach he clicks with
2. Don't sign CC Sabathia
3. Sign Casey Blake- NOT Mark Teixeira.

Common sense at its best.